De Chinese Wouden, maandag 18 november: treffen Xi en Biden bij APEC
Bronnen van de SCMP, FAZ, POLITICO Europe en Euronews zeggen dat de Europese Unie beschikt over inlichtingen die ‘overtuigend’ zouden laten zien dat op Chinees grondgebied (west-Xinjiang?) gewapende drones voor Russisch gebruik in Oekraïne gemaakt zouden worden.
De Europese Dienst voor Extern Optreden (EDEO) zou in gesprek zijn met Peking om opheldering te krijgen over de informatie en de vraag in hoeverre de centrale regering van China hiervan afweet. Deze maandag zouden de Europese ministers van buitenlandse zaken de berichten en mogelijke reacties bespreken.
Na tijden van berichtgeving en statements over Chinese steun voor Rusland komt men nu bij een harde rode lijn aan. Tot nu toe werd altijd gezegd, dat China geen ‘lethal military aid’, dodelijke militaire steun, gaf aan Rusland. Wanneer het bewijs steekhoudend blijkt, is dat niet meer te ontkennen. Wat gaat Brussel hierop doen?
De EU-lidstaten staan nu voor de eerste moeilijke keuze op dit dossier sinds duidelijk werd dat de Oekraïne-sceptische Trump in aantocht is. Hoe de ministers reageren zal inzicht geven in hoe ze gaan reageren op andere uitdagingen volgend jaar.
Terwijl dit in de pers verscheen, sprak de vertrekkende Amerikaanse president Biden met Xi Jinping tijdens de APEC-top in het Peruaanse Lima. Peking zal vooral de inkomende Trump-regering in gedachte hebben gehad bij de zeven ‘lessen’ die Xi opsomde. Je vindt ze in de nieuwsbrief. Hieronder vielen ook ‘vier rode lijnen’ voor de relatie tussen China en de VS.
Deze vier rode lijnen zijn: het ‘Taiwan-vraagstuk’, democratie en mensenrechten, het Chinese pad en systeem en het Chinese ‘recht op ontwikkeling’.
Taiwan is bekend en belangrijk, zeker onder een waarschijnlijk onvoorzichtigere Trump-regering. Interessant is ook de vermelding van democratie en mensenrechten – dit zou kunnen verwijzen naar de Chinese poging om relativisme breder gangbaar te maken internationaal.
Belangrijker – zeker voor Europa – is het ‘recht op ontwikkeling’. Peking heeft al eerder geklaagd, dat niet alleen sancties op Oeigoerse dwangarbeid maar ook Westerse reacties op oneerlijke economische praktijken dit recht zouden schaden. Het recht op ontwikkeling is voor Peking niet alleen een economisch mensenrecht, maar ook een nationaal kernbelang. Als rechtgeaarde marxist die gelooft in het economische fundament dat alles onderligt, zie je een verzwakking van de economische groei natuurlijk al snel als aanval.
Daarnaast zat er aan het einde volgens mij ook nog een waarschuwing met betrekking tot mogelijke Amerikaanse/Westerse reacties op de Noord-Koreaanse troepen die tegen Oekraïne vechten. In de korte paragraaf waarin Xi claimde dat het Chinese standpunt m.b.t. ‘the Ukraine issue’ eerlijk en consistent is, ging hij verder door te stellen dat China geen conflict en onrust toe zou staan op het Koreaanse schiereiland en niet passief toe zou kijken wanneer zijn strategische veiligheid en kernbelangen bedreigd worden. Het zou ook verband kunnen houden met Amerikaanse samenwerking met Zuid-Korea t.o.v. Pyongyangs dreigementen. Biden sprak zelf echter ook over het probleem van de Noord-Koreaanse soldaten in Europa.
Het is meer iets voor de weekendbijlage van vrijdag-nieuwsbrief, maar ik ben blij te delen dat de Jamestown China Brief afgelopen vrijdag een stuk van mijn hand heeft gepubliceerd. Daarin analyseer ik enkele trends in de Chinese diplomatie onder Xi Jinping op basis van een door mij gebouwde database van bezoeken. Een beetje pekingologie voor de liefhebber!
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Met een TikTok-zakenman en Chinese ondernemer in massagesalons wil FC Den Bosch naar de eredivisie – NRC: „De Aziatische investeerders achter FC Den Bosch omzeilden een onderzoek van de KNVB naar de herkomst van hun geld.” 🇳🇱
„Chinees bedrijf produceert drones voor Rusland, EU stelt vragen aan Peking” – NOS: „Het Britse persbureau Reuters meldde eind september op basis van bronnen bij een Europese inlichtingendienst dat Rusland een drone-programma heeft opgezet in China.” 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺
EU has ‘conclusive’ proof of armed drones for Russia being made in China, sources say – SCMP: ‘EU foreign ministers will discuss the intelligence at a meeting in Brussels on Monday’
‘Multiple EU diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the evidence was “credible” and “convincing”, and that there would need to be serious consequences for Beijing.’ 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺
EU erwägt Sanktionen gegen China – FAZ: „Die Europäische Union will Sanktionen gegen China verhängen, weil aus dem Land erstmals Waffen an Russland zum Einsatz gegen die Ukraine geliefert wurden. Wie drei Quellen der F.A.Z. bestätigten, hat der EU-Außenbeauftragte Josep Borrell die EU-Staaten vor einem Treffen der Außenminister am nächsten Montag über entsprechende Geheimdiensterkenntnisse informiert und Konsequenzen gefordert. Die Beweise seien „überzeugend“ und belegten die „Lieferung letaler Unterstützung“, sagte ein leitender EU-Diplomat am Freitag.“ 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺
EU to press China over drones for Russia, warns of ‘consequences’ – POLITICO Europe: ‘The official said that the EU has to determine whether Beijing knew about the firm’s activities and whether the production of drones amounted to “direct cooperation on military equipment between China and Russia.”’ 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺
EU grows increasingly convinced Russia is producing lethal drones in China – Euronews: ‘Talks between the EEAS and Beijing are ongoing to clarify the situation.’ 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺
China tries to smooth ties with EU as it anticipates shift in US foreign policy – VOA 🇪🇺
Czech FM Jan Lipavský: If Europe wants US protection against Russia, it must support US on China – Euractiv 🇨🇿
Does China have a new European ally in Slovakia’s prime minister? – Matej Šimalčík and Filip Šebok for The Diplomat 🇸🇰
Orbán turns to China to boost recession-hit economy – FT: ‘capturing more than a quarter of all Chinese investment coming into [Europe] over the past two years.’
‘Orbán’s challenge now is pulling off the diplomatic gymnastics required to simultaneously remain an ally to Xi Jinping and Donald Trump’s incoming administration of China hawks, while managing the threat of a chronic decline in EU funds.’ 🇭🇺
Security of Europe and Indo-Pacific ‘inseparable’, Taiwan’s President Lai tells Danish parliamentary delegation – Focus Taiwan 🇩🇰
Lithuania’s next government wants to patch things up with China. But is it even possible? – SCMP: ‘Paluckas has said that he would negotiate with China “without humiliating ourselves, falling to our knees and begging for anything”. It is unclear what could be done short of renaming or closing the Taipei office and annoying Taiwan, which has become an important trade and investment partner.’ 🇱🇹
Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung 林佳龍 is leading a delegation to Lithuania that includes executives from a range of companies – Bloomberg: ‘Representatives from more than 10 drone companies are also making the trip, said the person’ 🇱🇹
Taiwan’s Lithuania chip partnership to continue despite Vilnius factory construction delay – Taipei Times 🇱🇹
Rusland 🇷🇺
Russian sales of Chinese cars surge after western sanctions hit – FT: ‘Chinese manufacturers’ share over the same period has risen from 9 per cent to 57 per cent.’ 🇷🇺
APEC-top Peru 🏔️🇵🇪
Biden en Xi ontmoeten elkaar, maar de Chinese leider is vooral met Trump bezig – de Volkskrant: „Volgens Yun Sun, China-analist van de Amerikaanse denktank Stimson Centre, kan Trumps tarievenplan China zomaar 3 procent van de economische groei kosten.” 🇺🇸
Hun laatste ontmoeting brengt Biden en Xi niet veel verder – NRC 🇺🇸
Terwijl Trump een boksgala bijwoont, zaten Xi en Biden met elkaar aan tafel – Trouw 🇺🇸
As Trump return looms, China’s Xi at APEC criticises protectionism – Reuters
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 touts China as globalisation leader, draws contrast with US under Donald Trump – SCMP
Full Text of Chinese president’s written speech at APEC CEO Summit – Xinhua: ‘the world is in a new period of turbulence and transformation. Unbridled unilateralism and protectionism and an increasingly fragmented world economy threaten to reverse the trend toward economic globalization’
Xi maakt zich zorgen. In 2017 wist hij hoge ogen te gooien met zijn verdediging van mondialisering met zijn Davos-toespraak na de eerste overwinning van Trump. Deze keer is er een stuk meer scepsis in de wereld over Pekings eigen protectionisme.
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 says he will work with Trump team as he meets Biden in Peru – Reuters: ‘On Taiwan, the leaders appear to have had a sharp exchange.’ 🇺🇸
Biden and Xi agree that humans, not AI, should control nuclear arms – Reuters 🇺🇸
Xi says US must not cross four red lines – Xinhua: ‘the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s development right’ 🇺🇸
President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets with US President Joe Biden in Lima – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China:
First, it is important to have a correct strategic perception. The Thucydides’s Trap is not a historical inevitability. […]
Second, it is important to match words with actions. […]
Third, it is important to treat each other as equals. […]
Fourth, it is important not to challenge red lines and paramount principles. […] The one-China principle [sic] and the three China-U.S. joint communiqués are the political foundation of China-U.S. relations. They must be observed. The Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s development right are four red lines for China. They must not be challenged. These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-U.S. relations.
(一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报是双边关系的政治基础，必须恪守。台湾问题、民主人权、道路制度、发展权利是中方的4条红线，不容挑战。这些是中美关系最重要的防护栏和安全网。)Fifth, it is important to conduct more dialogue and cooperation. […]
Sixth, it is important to respond to the expectations of the people. […]
Seventh, it is important to step forward to shoulder the responsibilities of major countries. […]
[…]
[…] If the U.S side cares about maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait, it is crucial that it sees clearly the true nature of Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities in seeking “Taiwan independence,” handles the Taiwan question with extra prudence, unequivocally opposes “Taiwan independence,” and supports China’s peaceful reunification.
The Chinese people’s right to development is not to be deprived of or ignored. […]
There is no evidence that supports the irrational claim of the so-called “cyberattacks from China.” […]
China firmly upholds its territory, sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea. […]
China’s position and actions on the Ukraine issue have always been fair and square. […] China does not allow conflict and turmoil to happen on the Korean Peninsula. It will not sit idly by when its strategic security and core interests are under threat. (中方不会允许朝鲜半岛生战生乱，不会坐视中国的战略安全和核心利益受到威胁。)
Readout of President Joe Biden’s meeting with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China – The White House: ‘He expressed deep concern over the PRC’s continued support for Russia’s defense industrial base.’
Japan’s Ishiba and China’s Xi agree to forge ‘mutually beneficial’ ties – Kyodo News: ‘Ishiba also said he told Xi that Japan is “extremely concerned” about China's increasingly aggressive military maneuvers.’ 🇯🇵
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells Ishiba China hopes Japan will ‘properly handle’ history and Taiwan issues – Reuters: ‘Ishiba asked Xi to release Japanese nationals detained in China.’ 🇯🇵
South Korea’s Yoon tells China’s Xi cooperation needed on Russia and North Korea – Reuters 🇰🇷
Taiwan’s envoy Lin Hsin-i 林信義 holds talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on APEC sidelines – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
Taiwan’s APEC envoy Lin Hsin-i 林信義 chats with President Biden, extends invitation for visit – Focus Taiwan: ‘A photo showed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau listening during the conversation between Lin and Biden.’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan’s APEC representative Lin Hsin-i 林信義 says no handshake or dialogue with China’s Xi Jinping, only wave – Reuters: ‘in 2022, then 91-year-old Chang had a “very pleasant” and “polite” interaction with Xi at an APEC forum in Bangkok’ 🇨🇳
不讓習近平看到TAIWAN 中方人士強行斷電秘魯市區台灣廣告 – 中央社：「當地媒體報導，自稱中方人士為不讓中國國家主席習近平車隊下機抵達利馬途中看到TAIWAN看板，擅自將電子廣告斷電40分鐘，另有17名中國公民意圖強行拆除建築上方的廣告看板。」 🇨🇳
Berichten dat Chinezen met bedekte gezichten – als onderdeel van pogingen om de Taiwanese advertentiecampagne in de Peruaanse hoofdstad Lima tegen te gaan – de stroom naar een digitaal bord voor 40 minuten wisten te onderbreken, met als doel dat de autocolonne van Xi Jinping geen TAIWAN hoefde te zien.
Peru’s China links put pressure on Taiwan – Taipei Times 🇵🇪
Xinhua Headlines: China vows concrete actions to advance Asia-Pacific unity and cooperation – Xinhua
Taiwan to attend 2026 APEC summit in China, national security official says – Taipei Times: ‘after Beijing promised it would ensure the personal safety of attendees’
G20-top Brazilië 🏔️🇧🇷
Starmer to meet Xi for ‘pragmatic’ talks – POLITICO Europe 🇬🇧
Full Text of Chinese president's signed article in Brazilian media – Xinhua: ‘Not long ago, China and Brazil jointly issued a six-point common understanding on political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. Our initiative has received a positive response from the international community. China and Brazil, embracing our roles and responsibilities as major countries, have contributed to a multipolar world, conduced to greater democracy in international relations and injected positive energy into global peace and stability.’
Xi calls for reforming IMF, World Bank, and WTO, promoting Global South representation – Xinhua
Xinhua Commentary: G20 should lead global economic governance toward fairness – Xinhua: ‘The G20 must ensure that the voice of the AU and the wider Global South is not merely heard but also translated into tangible influence.’
Handel 🚗🇪🇺
China meldt ‘technisch akkoord’ met EU over e-auto’s – FD 🇪🇺
China and the European Union have reached ‘technical consensus’ in their talks aimed at scaling back or reversing tariffs that the bloc applied to China-made electric vehicles, according to a posting on a Weibo account affiliated with the state-run CCTV – Bloomberg 🇪🇺
“【#中欧电动汽车磋商有所进展#】11月2日至7日，中欧技术团队在北京进行了5轮磋商。这轮磋商后，中欧双方在新闻稿里都提到，双方取得了进展。谭主了解到，这个细节意味着，在磋商‘取得进展’上面，中欧双方有着共识。‘取得进展’指的是什么？达成这个共识对谈判有什么作用？谭主跟了解谈判进程的专业人士聊了聊。#欧盟分化中国车企未得逞#” – 玉渊谭天, Weibo 🇪🇺
Hier staat: ‘hebben consensus/overeenstemming’.
Tech War 💽💥
Lithuania passes law to block Chinese access to solar and wind farm systems – BNS 🇱🇹
China’s smartphone makers head upmarket in European push – FT: ‘Chinese smartphone makers say they are making renewed efforts to boost European sales, spotting an opportunity to win market share with new technologies’ 🇪🇺
Lithium producer says West cannot end reliance on China in critical minerals – FT: ‘The downturn in the lithium market undermines western efforts to build a domestic supply chain’
TSMC Arizona to receive US$6.6 billion from Biden administration – Focus Taiwan: ‘In a news release, the department said it signed a final agreement with TSMC Arizona’ 🇺🇸
Could rare earth recycling relieve China of a trade trump card? – SCMP
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Why China’s big cities are losing foreign workers even as post-Covid travel picks up – SCMP: ‘while more nationals from developed countries are leaving China, those from emerging markets are taking their place, although the total is still lower than before the pandemic.’
North Korea troops in Ukraine war ‘extremely significant’ for East Asia security, says Japan’s foreign minister – AFP 🇯🇵🇰🇵🇺🇦
Japanese troops will train alongside US rotational forces in Australia’s north starting from 2025 – Bloomberg 🇯🇵🇺🇸🇦🇺
Chinese military hardware draws interest from the Middle East at air show – SCMP
Chinese defence firms to attend Vietnam arms fair as ties deepen – Reuters: ‘Vietnam will hold an international defence exposition in Hanoi from Dec. 19-22, two years after it organised its first-ever military fair.’ 🇻🇳
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China and US hold political dialogue in Shenzhen – Xinhua 🇺🇸
China says Philippines sent supplies to beached warship on Second Thomas Shoal in South China Sea – Reuters: ‘In a separate statement, the Phlippine Coast Guard said it had rotated personnel staffing the Sierra Madre and sent supplies to the vessel.’ 🇵🇭
Myanmar junta planning joint security firm with China – The Irrawaddy: ‘to ensure the safety of Chinese projects and personnel in Myanmar.’ 🇲🇲
Dit klinkt een beetje hetzelfde als de mogelijke plannen in Pakistan, waar China ook soortgelijke uitdagingen heeft.
China and Saudi Arabia build ties beyond trade via financial channels – Nikkei Asia 🇸🇦
China must now lead global warming fight, UN climate chief says – POLITICO Europe: ‘comments, delivered at an event on China’s support for developing nations’ 🇺🇳🇦🇿
China economie
China’s retail sales grow at fastest pace since February – Nikkei Asia
China’s October data shows soft economic underbelly, Trump threat looms large – Reuters: ‘China's factory output growth slowed in October and it was still too early to call a turn in the crisis-hit property sector even though consumers perked up’
China’s tax man is coming for live-streamers who evade taxes as local economies struggle – SCMP
China binnenland
Interview Chun Han Wong: „Xi heeft zichzelf de man gemaakt die de Partij moet redden” – NRC
Oeigoeren in China worden ingezet als toeristische trekpleister – RTL Nieuws
8 doden bij mesaanval in school in China – VRT NWS
China’s second mass attack in a week spurs soul-searching – Reuters: ‘A former student went on a stabbing rampage at a vocational college in eastern China, killing eight people and injuring 17’
Son of jailed ex-CCP official 薄熙来 Bó Xīlái visits Taiwan; rumoured to marry Taiwanese – Focus Taiwan: ‘Bo Guagua was reportedly visiting the parents of his fiancée, who is from a well-known family in Yilan County’ 🇹🇼
China's Communist Party expels former agriculture minister Táng Rénjiàn 唐仁健 for corruption – Reuters
In Depth: Shanghai’s struggle to unclog its hospitals – Caixin Global
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan president Lai plans Hawaii visit and maybe Guam stop on sensitive trip to diplomatic partners in Pacific, sources say – Reuters: ‘One person familiar with the U.S. leg said they expected Lai’s visit to be lower key than usual and that logistics are still being worked on.’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan seeks trade deal progress with Trump administration, negotiator says – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
Taiwan the biggest US-China flashpoint, Chinese ambassador Xiè Fēng 谢峰 says – SCMP: ‘One of Xie’s predecessors, Cui Tiankai, echoed the ambassador’s comments’ 🇺🇸
Former Speaker Wang Jin-pyng 王金平 (KMT) begins China tour – Taipei Times: ‘is scheduled to meet with China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Director Song Tao’ 🇨🇳
Four Chinese coast guard vessels enter Kinmen waters twice Friday – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
Captain of Taiwanese fishing vessel detained in China for more than four months released – Focus Taiwan: ‘after paying a fine’ ‘detained by the Chinese authorities for illegally fishing in Chinese territorial waters during a seasonal moratorium’ 🇨🇳
SEF advises against travel to countries posing risks – Taipei Times: ‘a young Taiwanese was arrested and detained for three days by public security officers in China after she made a “V” sign on Tiananmen Square that covered up the Chinese characters on the entrance to the Forbidden City to say “Long Live the Republic of China”’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Taiwan’s legislature pass KMT-TPP proposal limiting National Communications Commission members’ terms – Taipei Times: ‘paving the way for the dismissal of NCC Acting Chairman Wong Po-tsung (翁柏宗) and potentially suspending the body’s work for the time being.’
Lawyers march against KMT’s Constitutional Court bills – Taipei Times: ‘A group of 153 lawyers who organized the march said the bills would […] cripple the court’s operations’
Taiwan: Reporters Without Borders denounces rare and worrying act of censorship by the government – RSF
Statement by the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents’ Club – TaiwanFCC: ‘we call on the leadership of TaiwanPlus to reassure the public and its employees of their commitment to maintaining editorial independence.’
Taiwan São Paulo office head impeached over procurement scandal that led to apparent suicide – Focus Taiwan