De Chinese Wouden, maandag 14 oktober: stabilisering economie, ASEAN-top
Onder het kopje ‘China economie’ vind je vandaag de verslaggeving van de persconferentie van financiën afgelopen zaterdag. Zoals verwacht zijn er nog geen definitieve grote bedragen genoemd. Het belangrijkste inzicht is een analyse in de Financial Times die uitlegt dat het doel van Xi is om de economie te verstevigingen in plaats van een nieuwe extreme groei.
Van 6 t/m 11 oktober was de jaarlijkse top van ASEAN landen onderling. Daarnaast zijn tegelijkertijd altijd een serie bijbehorende samenkomsten met regionale machten. De meeste relevantie ontmoetingen waren dus al vorige week, maar ik had al mijn aandacht bij de toespraak van Taiwans Lai Ching-te en de berichtgeving komt nu pas los. Vandaag wil ik wat meer aandacht besteden aan deze belangrijke regionale organisatie. Daarom even uitleggen.
Het proces van dekolonisatie in Zuidoost-Azië was moeilijk en gespannen. Nederland and Frankrijk vochten bloedige oorlogen in Indonesië en Indochina om het onvermijdelijke uit te stellen. De Verenigde Staten en het Verenigd Koninkrijk vochten tegen communisme met succes in de Filipijnen, Maleisië, Brunei en Singapore en falen in Vietnam, Cambodja en Laos. China en de Sovjetunie steunden en bewapenden communistische rebellen in de hele regio.
Maar ook zonder westerlingen was de sfeer in de jaren zestig niet best. Indonesië vocht een guerrilla-achtige Konfrontasi tegen Malesië en Singapore. Er waren grensconflicten tussen Thailand en Cambodja. Indonesië had een moorddadige omwenteling in 1966. Vietnam viel Cambodja binnen in 1978 om de genocidale Khmer Rouge af te zetten. De Filipijnen claimde het Maleisische Sabah.
De regionale organisatie Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is opgericht in 1967 – twee jaar na de plotselinge Singaporese onafhankelijkheid van Maleisië en één jaar na de val van de linkse nationalist Soekarno – om deze spanningen te smoren. Het eerste doel was om onder het principe van wederzijdse non-interventie de Zuidoost-Aziatische landen met elkaar in gesprek te brengen om te wennen aan co-existentie en eventueel samenwerking, zonder angst dat het ene land het andere land wil binnenvallen of de regering omver wil werpen.
Inmiddels is de regio grotendeels vreedzaam en een economische belofte. Bij de top van afgelopen week ging dan ook de meeste aandacht uit naar een tweede doel van ASEAN: voorkomen dat de regio ooit weer slachtoffer wordt van buitenlands imperialisme en theater van andermans wereldoorlogen. De oplossing is om als eenheid zoveel mogelijk buitenlandse grootmachten te binden aan de regio.
Onder het mom van ‘ASEAN Centrality’ worden buitenlandse landen uitgenodigd om onder voorwaarden van de tien lidstaten belangen te krijgen in het voortbestaan van een vreedzaam en stabiel Zuidoost-Azië. Volgens een proces dat de voormalige Indoneische minister van buitenlandse zaken Marty Natalegawa ‘dynamic equilibrium’ noemt, kunnen de ASEAN-landen hun onafhankelijkheid en vrede garanderen door de grootmachten elkaars ambities te laten balanceren.
De Europese Unie speelt een belangrijke ondersteunende rol – het sponsort de helft van het budget van het Secretariaat van ASEAN in Jakarta. Maar een grote invloed heeft Europa niet. Nederland is sinds kort ‘Development Partner’ van ASEAN en ook andere Europese landen besteden meer aandacht aan de regio. Namens de Europese Unie was raadsvoorzitter Charles Michel – hij gebruikte de kans om met de Chinese premier Li Qiang te praten over elektrische auto’s.
De belangrijkste spelers zijn echter China, Japan en de Verenigde Staten. De VS is altijd sceptisch geweest over het non-interventie-idee achter ASEAN en Washington pursues het liefst eigen initiatieven in met de regio. China heeft de organisatie echter altijd erg serieus genomen. Ook deze keer. Hij was hij de ASEAN-China Summit, de ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan, Republic of Korea) Summit en de East Asia Summit (EAS) met o.a. Rusland en de VS.
De EAS werd niet afgesloten met de gebruikelijke gezamenlijke verklaring – volgens berichten zouden China en Rusland samen de tekst geblokkeerd hebben vanwege taal over de Zuid-Chinese Zee en het zeerecht. Een ander onderwerp waarover geen nieuws was, was de Code of Conduct (COC, gedragscode) voor de Zuid-Chinese Zee, waarover ASEAN en China al onderhandelen sinds de Declaration on Conduct (DOC) van 2002 praten. Kenners zoals de voormalige Singaporese topdiplomaat Bilahari Kausikan zien in het uitstel een bewust spel.
De angst in Europa is dat Peking erin slaagt om te komen met versie van de COC die het internationale zeerecht deels buiten werken stelt voor de Zuid-Chinese Zee, door bijvoorbeeld de rechten op vrije doorvaart in te perken tot enkel ASEAN-leden en China.
Nederlands-Indië en de doodgeboren Nederlands-Indonesische Unie waren een reden waarom het buitenlandbeleid van Den Haag en Batavia altijd erg ingesteld was op de invloed van China in Zuidoost-Azië. Dat is inmiddels veranderd, logischerwijs. Maar je zou kunnen zeggen dat de economische afhankelijkheid van het Europese Nederland alleen maar is toegenomen. Producten uit China, Taiwan, Japan, Zuid-Korea en in toenemende mate de regio zelf moeten allemaal door die woelige wateren. Misschien moeten we deze toppen wat meer aandacht geven.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) to visit European Parliament in Brussels – Focus Taiwan 🇪🇺
Spokesperson of the Chinese Mission to the EU Speaks on a Question Concerning the European Parliament’s Xinjiang-related Resolution – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union 🇪🇺
UK Foreign Office ‘asked for UK visit by Taiwan ex-president to be deferred’ to not anger China – The Guardian: ‘Lammy is due to travel to China next week for high-level meetings in his first trip to the country as foreign secretary.’ 🇬🇧
Rusland 🇷🇺
Top BRICS economic officials stay away from Moscow meeting – Reuters: ‘But finance ministers and bank chiefs from China, India and South Africa stayed away, sending deputies or more junior officials instead’ 🇷🇺
Comment: Russia and China ramp up covert meddling in Georgian democracy – Hiroyuki Akita for Nikkei Asia 🇬🇪🇷🇺
Handel 🚗🇪🇺
China’s commerce ministry urges EU not to affect EV tariff talks with separate price negotiations – Reuters: ‘warning that would “shake the foundations” of bilateral tariff negotiations.’ 🇪🇺
商务部新闻发言人就欧盟电动汽车反补贴案中欧磋商情况答记者问 – 商务部新闻办公室：“我们认为，包括在华欧资企业在内的不同类型中国企业已授权中国机电商会，提出了代表行业整体立场的价格承诺方案，这是当前中欧磋商的基础。如欧方在与中方磋商的同时，又与部分企业单独进行价格承诺谈判，将动摇谈判的基础和互信，会给双方磋商带来干扰，不利于推进磋商整体进程。” 🇪🇺
De klacht van MOFCOM is dat de bedrijven de China Chamber of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering geautoriseerd hebben om namens allemaal te onderhandelen met de Commissie over mogelijke prijsafspraken, maar dat Brussel dat ondermijnt door tegelijkertijd met afzonderlijke bedrijven te onderhandelen.
China invites EU team for more talks to hammer out EV tariffs dispute – SCMP: ‘The ministry said on Saturday that from September 20, Chinese and European Union representatives held eight rounds of intense talks over 20 days and made “significant progress” in some areas.
“Yet regrettably, the EU has failed to positively respond to matters relating to the core concerns of Chinese and EU industries,” it said.’ 🇪🇺
European Council president Charles Michel says China must ‘adapt its behaviour’ to solve trade row – AFP: ‘The European Council president met Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the margins of a Southeast Asian summit in Laos’
‘Beijing reacted angrily to Michel’s remarks Friday, condemning what it called the EU’s “lose-lose” approach to the dispute.’ 🇪🇺
China’s premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 calls for ‘correct’ views and ‘rational’ policies in talks with European Council president Charles Michel as trade row with EU simmers – SCMP 🇪🇺
EU Should Defend Itself Against Chinese Protectionism, French Minister Haddad Says – Bloomberg
Luxury goods unlikely to be next target of China's EU trade retaliation, analysts say – Reuters 🇪🇺
Can joint ventures fix China’s trade imbalance with the EU and US? – SCMP: ‘Speaking at a round table event in Beijing on Friday, Huo Jianguo, former head of a think tank under China’s Ministry of Commerce’ ‘hosted by the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation’ 🇪🇺🇺🇸
CCG wordt gebruikt voor wat ik zie als verenigd front-werk gericht op Europa, dus interessant om te volgen welke narratieven ze lanceren. Neemt niet weg dat het een oplossing is waar ook mensen in Brussel en de lidstaten aan denken.
„Eigen zonnepanelen? De Chinezen produceren ze beter en goedkoper” – FD 🇪🇺
Honda 本田 opens first dedicated EV plant in China – Nikkei Asia: ‘The plant will be operated by Dongfeng Honda, a joint venture between the Japanese automaker and China’s state-owned Dongfeng Motor.’ 🇯🇵
Donald Trump doubles down on China carmakers being unwelcome in US market – SCMP 🇺🇸
Het Duitse businessmodel is in groot gevaar, de problemen in de economie hebben vele oorzaken – NRC 🇩🇪
Tech War 💽💥
Apple opens its ‘most extensive’ lab outside US in China amid fierce rivalry with Huawei – SCMP
Tech war: US-blacklisted Chinese surveillance camera maker Hikvision 海康威视 said to be cutting jobs – SCMP
America v China: who controls Asia’s internet? – The Economist: ‘Even as [the US] builds-up its military presence in Asia, it risks falling behind in the digital [data centre] contest.’
ByteDance 字节跳动’s TikTok executives know about app’s effect on teens, lawsuit documents allege – NPR
China retrieves its first reusable satellite in a quest to cut space research costs – SCMP
ASEAN-top
China en Rusland blokkeren Aziatische slotverklaring vanwege Zuid-Chinese Zee – de Volkskrant 🇷🇺
US official accuses Russia and China of blocking Asia leaders’ statement – Reuters: ‘Russia and China blocked a proposed consensus statement for the East Asia Summit drafted by Southeast Asian countries, mainly over objections to language on the contested South China Sea, a U.S. official told Reuters on Saturday.’
‘“ASEAN presented this final draft and said that, essentially, this was a take-it-or-leave-it draft,” the official said on condition of anonymity.’
‘The U.S. official said there were a couple of issues of contention, but the key one was how it referred to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), going further than in the previous 2023 EAS statement.’ 🇷🇺🇺🇸
Chairman’s Statement of The 19th East Asia Summit (EAS) – ASEAN: ‘With regard to Ukraine, as for all nations, we continued to reaffirm our respect for sovereignty, political independence, and territorial integrity.’
Dus geen gezamenlijke verklaring, maar slechts een verklaring van de voorzitter.
ASEAN urges early accord on South China Sea code, end to Myanmar violence – Reuters
Over half of Asean states back South China Sea joint patrols and exercises, President Marcos says – The Philippine Star 🇵🇭
Vietnam’s To Lam broaches South China Sea with Chinese Premier Li Qiang – SCMP 🇻🇳
China seizes initiative at key Asian summit ahead of US election – Bloomberg: ‘Chinese Premier Li Qiang used the Association of Southeast Asian Nations gathering that concludes Friday to advance his nations’ economic interests across the Indo-Pacific’
De Verenigde Staten stuurden slechts minister van buitenlandse zaken Blinken, die vooral druk was met vragen beantwoorden over Israël. Washingtons steun voor Israël is de belangrijkste reden voor het instorten van Zuidoost-Aziatische waardering voor Amerika. Bidens relatieve verwaarlozing van ASEAN en APEC helpt niet. Net als met de Chinese dominantie in de VN kun je wel klagen dat het forum niet volledig aan jouw wensen voldoet, maar het is wel de arena waar de diplomatieke strijd gevoerd wordt.
China ready to work with Asean countries to elevate comprehensive strategic partnership to higher level – Xinhua: ‘noting that new steps have been taken over the past year to build the China-ASEAN community with a shared future’
‘The Version 3.0 China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (FTA) negotiations have reached a substantial conclusion’
Full Text: Address by Chinese Premier Li Qiang at 27th China-Asean Summit – Xinhua
Chinese premier and Asean leaders eye joint efforts to maintain Asia-Pacific peace and stability – Xinhua: ‘“Asian affairs should be handled by Asian people through consultation, and the future of Asia must be firmly kept in our own hands,” [premier Li Qiang] said.’
Hoe vaker en luider China ‘Azië voor de Aziaten’ zegt, hoe moeilijker ik associaties met vooroorlogs Japan kan vermijden. De manier waarop sommige Chinese academici en nationalisten parallellen trekken tussen de Amerikaanse Monroe-doctrine en China’s belangen in Zuidoost-Azië helpt daarbij niet.
Philippines’ President Marcos tells Southeast Asian leaders: ‘Do not to turn a blind eye to coercive, illegal actions of external power vs Asean member’ – ABS-CBN: ‘During ASEAN leaders’ dialogue with China, where Beijing was represented by Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang, he said Filipinos continued “to be subjected to harassment and intimidation” in the waterway.’ 🇵🇭
China defiant over South China Sea skirmishes in Asean talks and blames meddling by foreign forces – AP: ‘Li responded by saying the South China Sea is “a shared [sic] home” and that China has an obligation to protect its sovereignty’ 🇵🇭
Japan PM Ishiba Shigeru 石破 茂 eyes closer Asean ties, wary of China assertiveness – Kyodo News: ‘During the ASEAN Plus Three summit in Vientiane, joined by Japan, China and South Korea, Ishiba voiced opposition to "unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion" anywhere in the world’ 🇯🇵
Chinese premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 hopes Japan and China can meet halfway, keep relations on right track – Reuters: ‘Li noted that the two countries should jointly safeguard the stability and smooth flow of industrial and supply chains and the global free trade system.’ 🇯🇵
Japan’s new PM Ishiba seeks to meet China’s Xi, no date fixed – Kyodo News 🇯🇵
China and Vietnam set to sign deals on railway links and agriculture, sources say – Reuters 🇻🇳
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
How justice is denied from Palestine to the Uyghur homeland – Rayhan Asat for Dawn: ‘The surveillance system China tested against the Uyghurs has been exported to the streets of occupied Hebron.’ 🇵🇸🇮🇱
China’s ‘New Great Wall’ Casts a Shadow on Nepal: Nepalis have complained that China’s breaches of the border threaten their land and their way of life – The New York Times: ‘“If China does not face costs for encroaching on its weakest neighbors, Beijing will be further emboldened to threaten countries in the region,” [Hart] added.’
‘government mission documented a series of small border infringements by China.’
‘The report says that in several places in and around Hilsa, China constructed fortifications and other infrastructure, including closed-circuit TV cameras, that are either in Nepal or in a buffer zone between the two countries where building is prohibited by bilateral agreement.’
‘Chinese forces have illegally prevented ethnic Tibetans living in Nepali areas near the border from grazing their livestock and participating in religious activities, the report said.’
‘Chinese police and border guards, Hilsa residents say, regularly cross over to Nepal without going through normal immigration procedures. They intimidate ethnic Tibetan Nepalis and have captured some of the few Tibetans who succeeded in fleeing to Nepal, said Lhamu Lama, a Humla District village administrator.’🇳🇵
Om te beoordelen wat voor grootmacht China is of wil zijn, kun je ook gewoon kijken hoe het omgaat met zijn zwakkere buurlanden.
What’s happening in America today is something darker than a misinformation crisis – Charlie Warzel for The Atlantic: ‘But as Michael Caulfield, an information researcher at the University of Washington, has argued, “The primary use of ‘misinformation’ is not to change the beliefs of other people at all. Instead, the vast majority of misinformation is offered as a service for people to maintain their beliefs in face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.”’
‘What we’re witnessing online during and in the aftermath of these hurricanes is a group of people desperate to protect the dark, fictitious world they’ve built.’
Zelenskiy says North Koreans fighting with Russians in Ukraine – Reuters 🇰🇵🇺🇦
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning enters Bashi Channel, heading for West Pacific – Focus Taiwan 🇮🇩🇵🇭🇹🇼
China sends security task force to Pakistan after latest Karachi terrorist attack – SCMP: ‘“demanded that the Pakistani side properly handle the aftermath, […], and adopt stricter security measures […],” the Chinese foreign ministry said.’ 🇵🇰
Two suspected Pakistani militants behind 2021 attack on Chinese killed in shootout – Reuters 🇵🇰
Chinese envoy praises Bangladesh student protesters while urging return to stability – SCMP 🇧🇩
Malaysia opposition MPs’ hackles raised over Chinese Navy’s port call in Penang – The Straits Times 🇲🇾
Senior CPC Secretariat and CPV Secretariat officials hold talks in Beijing – Xinhua 🇻🇳
Mongolia asks China to extend 24-hour border crossing after trial thrived – SCMP 🇲🇳
‘China is not Cuba’s sugar daddy’: ties between communist nations weaken – FT 🇨🇺
China economie
China’s finance ministry promises to borrow more to shore up economy and boost banks – FT: ‘“Our countercyclical adjustment goes far beyond what I have mentioned,” Lan told reporters, adding that more steps were under discussion.’
‘The Ministry of Finance cannot announce specific amounts of extra fiscal stimulus until these are rubber-stamped by China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress. Its next standing committee is expected in the coming weeks.’
China unveils fiscal stimulus measures to revive growth – Reuters:
‘increase support for local governments to address hidden debt risks’
‘expand the use of local government bond proceeds to support the property market and recapitalise large state-owned banks.’
‘Local governments will be allowed to use special bonds to purchase unused land’
‘increase support for low-income individuals and students to boost consumption’
‘Finance ministry’s presser laid out 3 areas of fiscal support: local debts, bank capital & gov budget shortfall. Little abt consumption. Goal is to stabilize the economy as opposed to stimulating growth.’ – Lingling Wei 魏玲灵, Twitter
China’s real intent behind its stimulus inflection – Arthur Kroeber for FT: ‘the underlying intent, which is to stabilise the economy rather than generate a major reacceleration.’
‘China’s core task is not to maximise GDP growth but to create a self-sufficient, technologically powerful economy immune to efforts by the US to stunt its rise.’
China binnenland
China arrests former insurance exec Li Quan as anti-corruption campaign sweeps finance sector – SCMP
China cracks down on Communist party officials for reading banned books – The Observer: ‘Several recent corruption cases against CCP officials have included accusations of procuring or reading banned materials.’
Old devices and idle servers can be turned to spy on us, China’s top state security agency warns – SCMP
Drama released by Chinese state security agency suggests foreign spies are trying to kill scientists – SCMP
Hong Kong en Macao
Hong Kong’s John Lee 李家超 is set to deliver his third policy address, how will it differ from first 2? – SCMP: ‘seek to lift the economy by solidifying Hong Kong’s strengths under the “one country, two systems” governing principle’
An ex-judge from mainland China, Sam Hou Fai 岑浩輝, is set to take Macao’s top job. What’s at stake for the casino hub? – AP: ‘Sam moved to Macao in the 1980s. While his official resume does not give a reason, former pro-democracy lawmaker Au Kam San said Sam was an official sent by China to Macao to research the city’s law.’
Liaison office of central government in Macao SAR hails chief executive election as ‘pioneering, emblematic’ – Xinhua
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China threatens Taiwan with more trade measures after denouncing president’s speech – Reuters: ‘The Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan’s ruling party, has not taken any practical measures to lift “trade restrictions” on mainland China, the commerce ministry said in a statement on its official website.’ 🇨🇳
商务部新闻发言人就台湾地区对大陆贸易限制措施答记者问 – 商务部新闻办公室：“自《商务部关于就台湾地区对大陆贸易限制措施进行贸易壁垒调查最终结论的公告》发布以来，民进党当局未采取任何实际措施取消对大陆的贸易限制。目前，有关部门正依据对台贸易壁垒调查结论，研究采取进一步措施。” 🇨🇳
Blinken warns China not to provoke – Taipei Times 🇺🇸
Taiwan’s foreign minister Lin Chia-lung 林佳龍 (DPP) lays out plan to secure remaining alliances – Focus Taiwan: ‘proposing a seven-point flagship project with the aim of helping these allied countries with their development’ ‘semiconductor and supply chain resilience, trustworthy digital governance, new energy and carbon credits, smart science park development, smart health care, new agricultural innovation, and artificial intelligence.’
‘The Philippines is another country in the region that would play a critical role in any potential conflict between Taiwan and China, Lin noted.’ ‘“This is why we also wish to boost our economic and trade ties with the Philippines to help them combat China’s [economic coercion].”’
Foreign minister pitches new interagency resources diplomacy – Focus Taiwan: ‘a new diplomacy platform to coordinate interagency resources and combine the strengths of different government branches to push for economic and trade diplomacy.’
Taiwan spots Chinese carrier, China military video says ‘prepared for battle’ – Reuters: ‘A second security source in Taiwan, familiar with intelligence assessments, said while it was still possible China, wary of creating a crisis over Taiwan so soon ahead of next month's U.S. election, might keep its reaction to angry words, there remained the possibility of more war games.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan’s weapons-making plans boosted – Taipei Times: ‘participation in the US-led Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience (PIPIR)’ ‘inaugural conference in Honolulu, Hawaii.’ ‘including Deputy Minister of National Defense Hsu Yen-pu’ 🇺🇸
Four Taiwanese Foxconn employees under probe in China, Beijing says – Focus Taiwan: ‘on suspicion of accepting bribes and embezzling funds’
‘MAC said it does not rule out the possibility that the case is connected to corruption and abuse of power by a small number of Chinese security officials.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwanese flock to China religious festival despite tensions – Reuters 🇨🇳
Most Japanese see Taiwan as independent, according to poll – Taipei Times: ‘The survey showed that 71.1 percent of Japanese respondents said they support establishing diplomatic ties with Taiwan, 71.2 percent view Taiwan as an independent nation and 55 percent feel closest to Taiwan among nine Asian countries.’
‘On late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s statement that “a Taiwan contingency is a contingency for Japan,” 38.3 percent said they supported it, 30 percent opposed it’ 🇯🇵
Upgrade to make it easier to spot stealthy PRC craft – Taipei Times: ‘Taiwan operates 11 Lockheed Martin TPS/FPS-117 active electronically scanned array radars, with seven fixed-position systems and four mounted on vehicles, the budget showed.’
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Keelung mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang 謝國樑 (KMT) remains in office after defeating recall vote – Focus Taiwan
Politicians react to Keelung mayor Hsieh defeating recall vote – Focus Taiwan: ‘“The great citizens of Keelung chose kindness and stability, and prevented the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) from using hatred and revenge to harm Keelung and harm democracy,” [KMT Chair Eric Chu] wrote, suggesting the DPP had been behind the campaign to recall Hsieh.’
‘Taiwan’s third-largest political party, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), also issued a statement to the media on Sunday evening, expressing their view that the DPP’s “green neo-authoritarian system” is already “unbearable to the people.”’
Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP)’s national day address – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic: ‘I find it a little disconcerting that Lai’s vision seems a bit haphazard and blurry.’