De Chinese Wouden, maandag 13 november: APEC, Zuid-Chinese Zee
We hebben data voor de EU-China-top in Peking. Als China de huidige houding voortzet, dan zullen de Europese leiders terugkomen met misschien wat praktische toezegging maar voor de fundamentele vraagstukken vooral met frustratie bevestigd.
Het is lastig voor de Europeanen, om hun bezwaren te doen doordringen bij hun Chinese tegenhangers. Dat betekent dat de praktische antwoorden door zullen blijven gaan. Nu introduceert ook Ierland controle van binnenkomende investeringen.
Deze week ontmoeten president Biden en president Xi elkaar tijdens de APEC-top in San Francisco. Het is duidelijk dat Peking hier intensief naar toe heeft gewerkt. Niet alleen hebben we recent een serie feel-good ontmoetingen gezien, er is nu ook commentaar met puntsgewijze aanwijzingen hoe Peking graag wil dat Washington zich opstelt in de relatie.
We moeten niet te hoge verwachtingen hebben van de uitkomsten. De fundamentele tegenstellingen nemen niet af. Nog meer dan in de betrekkingen met Europa, is er in de relatie China-VS een fundamenteel verschil van wereldbeeld. Bovendien blijven de Verenigde Staten in het wereldbeeld van China het grootste gevaar voor en de meest actuele uitdaging van de Grootse Herrijzenis.
De praktische uitdagingen blijven enorm. Juist daarom is deze dialoog wel belangrijk. De spanning tussen de Filipijnen en China rond Second Thomas Shoal in de Filipijnse EEZ is nog altijd aanwezig. De Nederlandse ambassadeur heeft weer het belang van UNCLOS en de uitspraak uit 2016 benadrukt op Twitter.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
EU-China summit on for on December 7 and 8 in Beijing as wary Brussels eyes firms flouting Russia sanctions – SCMP: ‘Breton will fly to Singapore on Saturday, skipping a planned trip to Hong Kong for reasons that have not been explained.’ 🇪🇺
Top EU and China climate officials to hold talks next week – Reuters 🇪🇺
Beijing’s data and spy laws threaten to spur decoupling with Europe, says BusinessEurope – FT 🇪🇺
Ireland set to put greater scrutiny on Chinese investment – The Straits Times 🇮🇪
Czech government signs agreement with Taiwan for Ukraine reconstruction cooperation – Reuters 🇨🇿
‘Here is the public handshake between Czech and Taiwanese Foreign Ministers in Vilnius today.’ – Jakub Janda 楊雅嚳, Twitter 🇨🇿
Estonia says Hong Kong-registered NewNew Polar Bear container ship is main focus of probe into cables damage – Reuters 🇪🇪🇫🇮
Finse politie: „Anker van Chinees containerschip heeft gaspijpleiding beschadigd” – NU.nl 🇫🇮🇪🇪
APEC 🌁🗻
Xi-Biden summit confirmed for Wednesday, ‘contentious’ issues on the table – SCMP: ‘“We’re not talking about a long list of outcomes or deliverables,” she said.’
Statement from Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on the US-PRC Leaders Summit – The White House:
President Biden will meet with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on November 15. The Leaders will discuss issues in the U.S.-PRC bilateral relationship, the continued importance of maintaining open lines of communication, and a range of regional and global issues. Building on their last meeting in November 2022 in Bali, Indonesia, the Leaders will also discuss how the United States and the PRC can continue to responsibly manage competition and work together where our interests align, particularly on transnational challenges that affect the international community.
Biden and Xi set to pledge ban on AI in autonomous weapons like drones and nuclear warhead control, according to sources – SCMP
Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will discuss reestablishing US-China military communications at their summit this week – Bloomberg
‘The US can’t transform China’: CCP Central Committee mouthpiece People’s Daily calls on Washington to fix trust deficit – SCMP
本着对历史、对人民、对世界负责的态度发展中美关系(钟声)——瞩望中美元首旧金山会晤 – 《人民日报》( 2023年11月12日 第03版):“中美元首巴厘岛会晤明确了一个方向,就是要防止中美关系脱轨失控,找到两个大国正确相处之道;确定了一个框架,就是要共同探讨确立中美关系指导原则或战略性框架;启动了一个进程,就是要将两国元首重要共识落到实处,管控和稳定中美关系。”
China roept vaak de VS op terug te keren naar de ‘consensus’ die op Bali bereikt zou zijn tussen Xi en Biden. Dit commentaar in het Volksdagblad onder de gezaghebbende pennaam ‘Zhong Sheng’ geeft daar inhoud aan: de richting 方向 is het stoppen van het ontsporen van de Chinees-Amerikaanse betrekkingen, een raamwerk 框架 verkennen voor de betrekkingen, en een proces 进程 voor het implementeren van de consensus.
“相互尊重是前提,和平共处是底线,合作共赢是目标。”
Wederzijds respect is de voorwaarde, vreedzame coëxistentie de bottomline en win-win samenwerking het doel.
Daarna volgt de instructie dat de Verenigde Staten hun gedrag moeten verbeteren. Alle recente voorbeelden van interactie tussen beide landen die eerder in deze nieuwsbrief stonden passeren ook weer de revue in dit stuk ter illustratie dat samenwerken i.p.v. tegenwerken in lijn met de tijdsgeest zou zijn.
Xinhua Commentary: Why China disagrees with US definition of competitive bilateral ties – Xinhua
Xinhua Commentary: China-US cooperation essential for respective development and common prosperity – Xinhua
Een serie van commentaren van staatspersbureau Xinhua in vertaling te vinden in de nieuwsbrief van Bill Bishop komt ook met waslijsten aan beloftes die de Verenigde Staten zouden hebben gedaan.
Niks aan te merken op de Chinese kant, natuurlijk.
Taiwan, facing Chinese pressure, to stress importance of peace at APEC summit – Reuters: ‘takes part in APEC as “Chinese Taipei” and does not send its president to summits’
In plaats van president Tsai Ing-wen stuurt Taipei weer TSMC-oprichter Morris Chang 張忠謀 (Zhāng Zhōngmóu).
Zuid-Chinese Zee 🏝️💥
‘@NLinPhilippines underlines the importance of UNCLOS and the 2016 arbitral award.’ – ambassadeur Marielle Geraedts, Twitter 🇳🇱
Philippines denounces China for ‘unprovoked acts of coercion’ to block resupply mission – Reuters
What it’s like to dodge Chinese coast guard ships and water cannons to resupply one of the most remote outposts in the world – Bloomberg: ‘the Philippines said it detected a total of 38 Chinese ships during the voyage, including fishing trawlers and a hospital vessel. Manila had five — the three coast guard ships built by Japan and two supply boats chartered by the military.’
Taiwanese legislators plan visit next month to assert Itu Aba/Taiping Island sovereignty, KMT legislator Sandy Yu 游毓蘭 says – Taipei Times
Tech War 💽💥
Tesla is furious it’s not in EU’s Chinese subsidy probe – POLITICO Europe
China’s strategic mineral supply push ‘a very urgent mission’, says resources minister, amid self-reliance push – SCMP
China on track to control African Tazara railway despite geopolitical needling over control of mineral trade routes – SCMP: ‘the funding for the railway pointed to Beijing’s keen interest in using Tazara for mining exports from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo’
‘Tazara’s upgrade comes at a time when the European Union and the US have announced they will fund the building of a railway from the Zambian copper belt to an existing line to the Angolan port of Lobito.’
China’s tech drain can’t be stopped but can be delayed, says expert – Nikkei Asia
Huawei Mate 60 Pro teardown reveals 47% Chinese parts in phone – Nikkei Asia: ‘up 18 percentage points from a model analyzed three years ago.’
Nikon looks to strike gold in China’s low-tech chip device market – Nikkei Asia: ‘selling a new product in China that uses technology old enough not to be subject to export controls.’ ‘i-line technology’
Taiwan economy minister Wang Mei-hua 王美花: Chip industry’s growth abroad to be carefully scrutinised – The Yomiuri Shimbun: ‘For Taiwan, there’s no inherent need to produce semiconductors overseas.’
Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council to list national core key technologies – Taipei Times
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Chinese securities no longer ‘must-haves’ as overseas confidence wanes – SCMP
Japan, US, Canada, and Australia holding joint naval drill in Pacific – Jiji Press
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
How Chinese firm Hikvision 海康威视, linked to repression of Uyghurs, aids Israeli surveillance in West Bank – The Guardian: ‘Hikvision has marketed facial-recognition features that would, it claimed, automatically detect Uyghur people. It has also advertised features meant to discern any person’s ethnicity, age and race based on an image of their face.’
Chinese envoy urges immediate ceasefire between Israel and Palestine – Xinhua
Remarks by Ambassador Zhang Jun at the UN Security Council Emergency Meeting on the Palestinian-Israeli Situation – Permanent Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the UN: ‘In the face of all this, the world must speak out together: Enough is enough. In the face of all this, the Security Council must do away with the obstruction and interference of some Member [the US] and take immediate, responsible, and meaningful action to uphold justice and maintain peace.’
‘A ceasefire and end to the fighting cannot be delayed.’ ‘We urge Israel to curb the intensifying settler violence in the West Bank, so as to avoid the concurring hotspot and the spread of conflict.’
‘We urge an end to the collective punishment of civilians. We demand the safety and humanitarian needs of hostages be guaranteed and call for diplomatic efforts to facilitate their early release.’
China says held frank and friendly talks with Vietnam on bilateral ties – Reuters: ‘Reuters last month reported that Vietnamese and Chinese officials were preparing for a possible trip by Xi to Hanoi.’
12-year espionage sentence becomes final for Japanese man held in China – Jiji Press
China Coast Guard vessels enter Japan’s territorial waters off Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands; Tokyo protests to Beijing – The Yomiuri Shimbun
China says will ensure security and stability at border with Myanmar – Reuters
Chinese police order arrest of alleged Myanmar crime family over vast telecoms fraud operation – SCMP: ‘Ming Xuechang — a politician in Myanmar’s Kokang region’
China economie
De ‘fictieve’ onderzoeksassistent fleurt de Chinese werkloosheidscijfers lekker op: helemaal niks doen voor 260 euro per maand – de Volkskrant: „De creatie van de nepbanen komt voort uit het politieke systeem van China, waar lagere overheids- of universiteitsbestuurders onder grote druk staan om aan doelstellingen van bovenaf te voldoen.”
China’s new financial watchdog gets teeth to take on fintech risks – SCMP
China pledged to ‘strictly control’ coal. The opposite happened. – Lauri Myllyvirta and Byford Tsang for Foreign Policy: ‘The recent about-face on coal is odd for Beijing, which generally under-promises and over-delivers on climate commitments.’ ‘concerns over electricity shortages in the summer of 2022 spurred a policy U-turn.’
‘China’s grid operation is too inflexible to use existing capacity and infrastructure efficiently. The country thus requires excessive power capacity to avoid shortages.’
‘As the 2030 deadline for carbon emissions to peak approaches, many Chinese officials and executives now see the next five years as a window of opportunity to add carbon-intensive capacity’
‘The “supporting” role of coal power has even become a way for local officials and project developers to justify new projects.’
China binnenland
China’s Communist Party has still not set a date for its annual meeting. Is the Xi-Biden summit part of the delay? – SCMP: ‘the third tends to attract more attention because it often unveils policies that could change the direction of the country’s economy’
Four killed in building collapse in China’s Wenzhou city – Reuters
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 inspects post-flood reconstruction in Beijing and Hebei – Xinhua
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Top US military official Charles Brown doubts China wants to invade Taiwan – FT
Taiwanese firms have invested NT$8.5tn [€246bn] in China – Taipei Times
Taiwanese air force’s new Ching Tien missiles can travel 2,000km, according to source – Taipei Times: ‘The addition of the Ching Tien means that the military now has four missile types with ranges of more than 1,000km, including an extended-range variant of the Hsiung Feng IIE, the source said.’
India plans Taiwan labour supply pact while China tensions brew – Hindustan Times: ‘a plan to send tens of thousands of workers to the island as early as next month’
Eerste berichten over een overeenkomst komen van eind september.
Taiwan verkiezingen
Ex-President Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 (KMT) backs polling as escape from KMT-TPP joint ticket morass – Focus Taiwan: ‘Hsiao’s comments appeared to align Ma more closely with Ko’ ‘received the backing of several county commissioners as well as Han Kuo-yu’
朱立倫:「藍白合」採全民調 目前討論重點在「三個比」 – 自由時報
Druk van de conservatieven/Vastelanders in de KMT op Taiwanese benshengren Hou Yu-ih neemt toe. Commentaar van de nieuwsredacteur in pro-KMT krant UDN zegt ook dat de enige bottomline voor de samenwerking het neerhalen van de DPP is. Goed nieuws voor de kansen van Ko Wen-je.
The DPP’s progressive failure – Michael Turton for Taipei Times: ‘The DPP’s attempt to consolidate its base by playing up the PRC threat is eliciting shrugs from voters, because being Taiwanese and caring for its security is now the consensus identity.’
De zogeheten ‘China Cleavage’ bepaalt nog wel de vorm van het politieke landschap in Taiwan, maar heeft steeds duidelijker minder effect bij het sturen van de keuzes die vooral jonge kiezers in dat landschap maken. Ko is een duidelijk symptoom van wat dit gaat betekenen op de lange termijn. DPP’s Lai mag hopen dat in januari het China-effect toch de doorslag geeft in het stemhokje.
China doubles down on Taiwan threats as election nears – Nikkei Asia: ‘China’s rhetoric explicitly endorses Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang’s (KMT) framing of the upcoming election as one “between war and peace.”’
Taiwan: following RSF’s call, six major media outlets commit to ethical coverage of the presidential campaign – Reporters Without Borders
De publieke omroepen die dit hebben ondertekend zijn het probleem niet. De grootste issues komen van de kabeltelevisie, en dan gebiedt de eerlijkheid te zeggen dat het vooral de pro-KMT/China-vriendelijke kant is waar de grootste desinformatie vandaan komt.
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Convicted former colonel Hsiang Te-en 向德恩 impeached by Control Yuan for CCP bribes – Taipei Times: ‘to be sent to the Disciplinary Court’
Former Legislative Yuan specialist receives final sentence in illegal entry case of Chinese nationals – Focus Taiwan
Kaohsiung prosecutors to appeal release on bail of three ‘united front’ suspects accused of recruiting retired military personnel to visit China – Taipei Times
Decades after the end of White Terror, Taiwan still struggles to come to terms with its painful past – HKFP: ‘From 2018 to 2022, the Tsai Ing-wen administration sponsored a transitional justice commission to investigate abuses between 1945 and 1992, though for many activists, it did not go far enough.’