De Chinese Wouden, dinsdag 2 april: Filipijnen, Prabowo, Japan
De nieuwsbrief vandaag bevat weer enkele nieuwsberichten die mijn stokpaardje ondersteunen dat Japan zo essentieel is voor Europa om in de gaten te houden. We kunnen veel leren van de manier waarop Japan steun verzamelt in de regio en halfgeleiderindustrie aantrekt uit Taiwan – hoewel Dresden dat al lijkt te doen.
Aan Japanse voorbereidingen voor een conflict om Taiwan kunnen we verder zien hoe het buurland de risico’s van China inschat. Tokio plant niet alleen upgrades van de militaire infrastructuur in de buurt van Taiwan, maar is ook bezig met meer bunkers voor de burgerbevolking op de buitenliggende eilanden.
Een andere plek waar Japan problemen ziet, is de oplopende spanningen tussen China en de Filipijnen. Japan zou nu samen met de Verenigde Staten en de Filipijnen marinepatrouilles in de Zuid-Chinese Zee willen uitvoeren. Dat is belangrijk, gezien het toegenomen geweld en de mogelijk extreme gevolgen als er een conflict komt tussen China en de Amerikaanse verdragsbondgenoot de Filipijnen.
China beschuldigt dan ook de VS van het opdrijven van de spanningen als ook het opjutten en aansturen van de Filipijnen. Hierop reageert Manila geprikkeld. De Filipijnen zien zichzelf als zelfstandige, verdedigende partij tegen Chinese dreigementen. Je zou zelfs kunnen zeggen dat de VS de Filipijnen in de steek hebben gelaten. Juist de Amerikaanse verwaarlozing van de Chinese uitbreiding in de Zuid-Chinese Zee onder Obama en het negeren van Filipijnse behoeften heeft Peking de kans gegeven om de huidige situatie te creëren.
We kunnen debatteren of de huidige situatie het gevolg is van een recente toename van Chinese druk of een omschakeling van het beleid onder President Marcos jr., die o.a. de tactiek van ‘assertieve transparantie’ toepast – het openbaren van de Chinese agressie door bij. journalisten mee te sturen en opnames vrij te geven.
Duidelijk is dat de onderliggende bron van spanning in het huidige subconflict komt van de tikkende klok van het op de Second Thomas Shoal als basis gestrande schip BRP Sierra Madre. Dat valt langzaam uiteen en de race is tussen Manila om versterking te brengen voordat dit gebeurt, en Peking om dat te voorkomen opdat China het over kan nemen wanneer de Filipijnse mariniers in het water vallen.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
The Dutch software company Datenna that could shape EU-China relations for decades – SCMP: ‘Datenna uses open source intelligence (OSINT) to furnish governments with the data they need to make policy decisions on China.’ 🇳🇱
‘Congratulations on the successful holding of the sixth meeting of #China-#EU High-Level People-to-People Dialogue. China and EU are partners. The stronger our people-to-people ties, the better the future of our relations.’ – 王鲁彤 Wang Lutong, Twitter 🇪🇺
France’s visiting foreign minister seeking ‘clear message’ from China to Russia over Ukraine war – AFP: ‘Sejourne’s visit is the second to China by a French foreign minister in less than six months, following a trip by his predecessor, Catherine Colonna, in November.’ 🇫🇷
Chinese premier meets French foreign minister in Beijing – Xinhua: ‘Li said China-France relations have long been at the forefront of China's relations with Western major countries, which not only benefits the two peoples but also has a profound impact on the world.’ 🇫🇷
Chinese and French foreign ministers hold talks on closer ties – Xinhua: ‘It is hoped that the French side will attach importance to addressing China’s legitimate and reasonable concerns, and provide a fair, non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies, [Wang] added.’ 🇫🇷
UK and Czech ministers among China’s hacking targets – POLITICO Europe 🇬🇧🇨🇿
Western governments struggle to coordinate response to Chinese hacking: Experts say UK-imposed sanctions will make no difference when hacking is part of ecosystem of dealing with Beijing – The Guardian 🇬🇧
York University accused of censoring student’s Hong Kong protest – i 🇬🇧
Tory immigration policies risk over-reliance on Chinese students, ex-universities minister warns – The Guardian: ‘It comes as estimates suggest 25% of tuition fee income at leading British universities already comes from China.’ 🇬🇧
Denmark may change stance on Taiwanese – Michael Danielsen for Taipei Times 🇩🇰
Taiwan’s top diplomat Joseph Wu 吳釗燮 says US aid to Ukraine is critical for deterring China – The New York Times: ‘If the United States abandons Ukraine, Mr. Wu said, China will “take it as a hint” that if it can keep up sustained action against Taiwan, “the United States is going to back off, the United States and its allies are going to back off.”’ 🇺🇦
Filipijnen 🇵🇭
Philippines boosts maritime security as China tension rises – Reuters: ‘The president vowed on Thursday to implement countermeasures against “illegal, coercive, aggressive and dangerous attacks” by China’s coastguard.’
US, Japan, and the Philippines plan joint South China Sea naval patrols – POLITICO: ‘The White House is also expected to announce that it will “seriously consider” having Japan as a technological partner in elements of the “AUKUS” security partnership between the U.S., U.K. and Australia’ 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Philippines says it will not yield to submission in row with ‘patronising’ China – Reuters
Philippines reminds China: We’re not aggressors in West Philippine Sea – Rappler
Tech War 💽💥
Tech war: China quietly making progress on new techniques to cut reliance on advanced ASML lithography machines – Alibaba’s HK-based SCMP: ‘The efforts, which involve multiple players in China’s semiconductor supply chain, have made preliminary research progress, with a patent application by Huawei Technologies last month revealing a technique known as self-aligned quadruple patterning, or SAQP’
Het is natuurlijk ook in het belang van de Chinese diensten om ons te doen geloven in de futiliteit van de beperkingen. Volg dit soort berichten nauwgezet, maar laat je niet gelijk wegblazen. In dat opzicht is het voor mij vooral interessant dat een patentaanvraag zo groot wordt gemaakt.
Japan and EU to discuss cooperation on tech materials to cut reliance on China, Commissioner Iliana Ivanova says in Nikkei interview – Reuters: ‘cooperating on advanced materials for next-generation chips and batteries to reduce their reliance on China’ 🇪🇺🇯🇵
US updates export curbs on AI chips and tools to China – Reuters: ‘They clarify, for example, that restrictions on chip shipments to China also apply to laptops containing those chips.’ 🇺🇸
TSMC to partner with Kyushu University on chip personnel and research – Nikkei Asia: ‘TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, will send staff as instructors to the Japanese university’s Education Center for Semiconductors and Value Creation with an eye toward addressing a talent shortage in the field.’ 🇯🇵
With Intel tie-up, Taiwan chipmaker UMC 聯華 makes US push – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
New productive forces: How Xi Jinping plans to overtake America – The Economist
How China uses foreign firms to turbocharge its industry –
How Gulf states are putting their money into mining – FT: ‘nations believe that selling to Gulf states can help sidestep tension between the US and China over their copper, iron ore and lithium’ ‘For international mining groups also seeking to navigate US-China tensions over natural resources, the Middle East offers a neutral venue for minerals processing, capital and corporate headquarters.’
Denk maar niet dat we eindelijk van deze landen afkomen wanneer we geen fossiele brandstoffen meer nodig hebben.
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Japan mulling port and runway upgrades for use during military emergencies, Mainichi Shimbun reports – Taipei Times: ‘Nearly half of the facilities slated for improvement are in Kyushu and Okinawa, reflecting Tokyo’s apparent concern for the security of its outlying southwestern islands and possibly a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it said.’ 🇯🇵
Japan plans 2-week shelters on islands near Taiwan – Nikkei Asia 🇯🇵
Professor Graham ‘Thucydides Trap’ Allison’s Three-Body Problem – China Heritage: ‘the Harvard academic also has something of a “three-body problem”, shape-shifting as he does between his role as an academic, a market-oriented commentator and a new “old friend of China”.’
‘The reality, however, is that Allison’s recipe is actually a recipe for war. Appeasement of aggressors is far more dangerous than measured confrontation.’
Ik heb me altijd erg verbaasd dat een inhoudelijk zo zwak boek als The Thucidydes Trap zo groot is geworden. Maar dat komt waarschijnlijk omdat het argument aansluit bij de belangen en vooroordelen van de door Geremie Barmé aangestipte Amerikaanse academici en Chinese functionarissen.
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China willing to work with Indonesia to ‘run historic relay race well’, Xi tells Prabowo – SCMP 🇮🇩
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 holds talks with Indonesia’s president-elect Prabowo Subianto – Xinhua: ‘Xi said China and Indonesia are both representatives of major developing countries and emerging markets. In the past, the two countries have always supported each other in the cause of national independence and development, he said, while in the future, the two countries should also unite in good faith to set an example of win-win cooperation and shared development, and become a pacesetter for South-South cooperation.’ 🇮🇩
China’s advancing efforts to influence the US election raise alarms – The New York Times: ‘In an echo of Russia’s influence campaign before the 2016 election, China appears to be trying to harness partisan divisions to undermine the Biden administration’s policies’ 🇺🇸
US lawmakers urge Biden to call out more Chinese biotech firms – Reuters 🇺🇸
Chinese state media accuse Netflix series 3 Body Problem of pushing ‘American cultural hegemony’ – SCMP 🇺🇸
Bodies of eight Chinese migrants found on beach in Mexico after boat capsize – AFP 🇲🇽🇺🇸
Japan and China hold expert consultation in Dalian on Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant treated water ocean release – The Yomiuri Shimbun 🇯🇵
China joins probe into deadly Pakistan suicide attack on its nationals – Reuters 🇵🇰
Uyghur refugees registered as Afghan refugees in Pakistan face deportation in April – RFA 🇵🇰
Chinese warships spotted again at Cambodia naval base – Nikkei Asia 🇰🇭
Former Australian prisoners held by China, Iran, and Myanmar unite against ‘hostage diplomacy’ – The Straits Times 🇦🇺
China’s exit bans have left foreign executives trapped inside the country—often with no idea when they will be allowed to leave – WSJ: ‘The vast majority of exit bans aren’t applied to people accused of a crime but to those involved in civil litigation, usually business disputes.’
China economie
China snapped a five-month decline in manufacturing, adding to evidence that country’s industrial sector is building momentum – Bloomberg
China’s new home prices rise at fastest pace in over 2-1/2 years, survey shows – Reuters: ‘The average new home price across 100 cities rose 0.27% on month in March, the biggest rise since July 2021’
China’s excess clean energy sector production is ‘likely only temporary’, former central bank chief says – SCMP
Dat zal best, maar de vraag is wat er in de tussentijd gebeurt met de Europese industrie.
Exclusive: China’s SAIC 上汽 aims to slash jobs at GM and Volkswagen ventures, and EV unit, sources say – Reuters: ‘The state-owned automaker hopes to cut 30% of employees at SAIC-GM, 10% at SAIC Volkswagen and more than half at its Rising Auto EV subsidiary, the people said.’ 🇩🇪
China’s new rules for finance pull the brakes on gravy train, bringing ‘greed is good’ era to a halt – SCMP: ‘dedicating substantial time in statements to criticising inadequacies in the Western financial model’
China binnenland
‘Worrying malaise’: China’s economic and social fortunes rest on its youth, but they are lying flat and ‘letting it rot’ – SCMP: ‘Demographers and analysts say the mental health of young Chinese may affect the country’s future “human capital”, and more broadly its economic path, and that Beijing must take steps to treat the issue seriously.’
Migrant workers who helped build modern China have scant or no pensions, and can’t retire – AP
Hong Kong en Macao
Young political activists recall abuse at Hong Kong juvenile correctional facility – RFA: ‘They tell of beatings and anal rape amid a rise in the youth prison population and clampdown on dissent.’
高牆內的角落:香港監獄裡被不當對待的少年 – 報導者
US to impose new visa curbs on Hong Kong officials over rights crackdown – Reuters 🇺🇸
US-funded Radio Free Asia shuts down in Hong Kong over safety concerns – The Guardian 🇺🇸
Taiwan parliamentary group launched to support Hong Kong rights – Taipei Times 🇹🇼
Chinas Glücksspielmetropole: Das letzte Pferderennen von Macau – Der Spiegel
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Exclusive: Taiwan’s navy chief Tang Hua 唐華 to visit US next week, sources say – Reuters: ‘The six security sources said Tang would visit Hawaii, home of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, for a Pacific Fleet change-of-command ceremony. Three of them said Tang was then expected to attend the April 8-10 Sea-Air-Space conference near Washington and that talks were under way to arrange a meeting with the U.S. chief of naval operations, Admiral Lisa Franchetti.’ 🇺🇸
AIT chair Laura Rosenberger arrives in Taiwan; to meet Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) and Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
Ex-President Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 (KMT) departs on trip of ‘friendship and peace’ to China – Focus Taiwan: ‘there has been speculation that Ma could meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Reuters has reported that the meeting is expected to take place on April 8.’ 🇨🇳
China’s Taiwan affairs official Sòng Tāo 宋涛 meets Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 – Xinhua 🇨🇳
China weighing reaction to Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP)’s May 20 inauguration ‘guest list’ – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Chinese state media spread allegation Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) would flee war – Reuters: ‘IORG’s analysis showed that the CCP-backed Fujian Daily Press Group, which runs a network of Taiwan-focused news portals, was behind roughly 20% of the 439 stories.’ 🇨🇳
In Taiwan, a group is battling fake news one conversation at a time — with a focus on seniors – AP
Taiwan races to catch up with China’s military drone capabilities – SCMP 🇨🇳
Tests done, latest-generation armoured vehicle ready for production – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan binnenland en economie
President Tsai (DPP) urges defence minister Chiu Kuo-cheng 邱國正 (Ind.) to remain after verbal resignation offer – Focus Taiwan: ‘Chiu tendered his resignation verbally to the president after his son, who works at the National Security Bureau (NSB), was reported Thursday to be involved in a sex scandal.’
Defence chief apologises for son’s sex scandal; to stay in office – Focus Taiwan
KMT seeks to expand legislative authority, given the pan-Blue lead in the Legislative Yuan – New Bloom: ‘The DPP has criticized the proposal, stating that it will seek an interpretation from the Constitutional Court.’
Proposed reforms would be unconstitutional: DPP – Taipei Times
Het is een typisch leninistische impuls van de KMT om de macht uit te breiden van de posities onder controle van de partij en de macht van andere posities proberen te verminderen. Ik moet denken aan het werk van Fewsmith en Torigian over de opkomst en neergang van specifiek onderdelen van de Chinese partijstaat onder de CCP als consequenties van de interne strijd om de macht daar.
KMT to review draft whistle-blower bill without waiting for Executive Yuan version – Taipei Times
KMT proposal to ease naturalisation laws for Chinese spouses in Taiwan sparks debate – The Straits Times
National Development Council advises against KMT’s high-speed rail bill – Taipei Times
DPP proposes harsher treason sentences for military – Taipei Times
Woman’s acquittal in China spy case on basis of freedom of speech appealed – Taipei Times: ‘The acquittal did not examine her efforts to develop a network for the Chinese government and the judge detached this portion presented in the indictment, Lin said.’
Taipower 台電 to raise electricity rates from Monday – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s reservoirs down to three months’ water – Taipei Times
TSMC 台積電 staff’s babies make up 1.8% of total newborns – Taipei Times: ‘The “TSMC Child Care Benefit Program 2.0” helps it promote a family-friendly workplace’
Waarmee TSMC zowel zijn aantrekkelijkheid laat zien aan mogelijke werknemers als ook de regering bedient op een grote zorg.