De Chinese Wouden, 24 februari: Duitse verkiezingen, private economie, handel
De uitslag van de Duitse verkiezingen lijkt zoals al verwacht werd. We gaan zien wat voor coalitie er komt in Berlijn. SCMP keek al vooruit naar de (on)mogelijkheid van een verschuiving van het Duitse Chinabeleid. Wat opvalt waren de scherpe woorden van Merz en anderen bij het debat na de eerste exitpolls over de Verenigde Staten.
Bill Bishop heeft net een korte notitie verstuurd waarin hij recente stappen van Washington interpreteert als signaal van steviger beleid tegen China – vooral op halfgeleidergebied. Naast Trump en de handelsoorlog zijn we ook nog niet uitgepraat over de binnenlandse economische uitdagingen van China. Na Xi Jinpings treffen met private ondernemers verschenen er een groot aantal commentaren in de staatspers. Veel buitenlandse media hoopte er ook een signaal van nieuwe steun voor het vrije deel van de economie in te zien.
Je kunt inderdaad meer steun gaan zien. Ik zou echter geen grote verwachtingen hebben van de wetgever bij de aankomende Twee Sessies begin maart. De bijeenkomst met Xi liet zien hoe de verhoudingen liggen. Als schooljongens maakten de grote zakenlieden aantekeningen. Ondertussen noemt een commentaar in het Volksdagblad als redenen voor vertrouwen in de private sector de theorie en praktijk van de Partij en ook de Chinese stijl van modernisering. Chinese modernisering wordt dikwijls gedefinieerd door het te contrasteren met de negatieve gevolgen van het losbandige, kapitalistische Westerse model.
De SCMP wijst op een belangrijk citaat van Xi in datzelfde commentaar: „op de lange termijn is de Oosterwind nog altijd machtig.” (长远看还是东风浩荡。) Dit verwijst naar Mao Zedong, die in de jaren vijftig de uiteindelijke overwinning van het communisme op het kapitalisme beschreef door te stellen dat de Oosterwind zou zegevieren over de Westerwind. De strategische agenda achter Xi Jinpings economisch beleid blijft ongewijzigd – hij zal zich alleen maar bevestigd zien door de huidige ontwikkelingen in het Westen.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Why a post-election shift in Germany’s China policy is no longer a sure bet – SCMP: ‘[Thanks to a changing US,] the discussion about de-risking ties with China has slipped down the agenda in Berlin, Brussels and across Europe.’ 🇩🇪
Europe must reach defence ‘independence’ of US, Germany’s Merz (CDU) says – AFP: ‘he added that it was questionable “whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form [by the time of the NATO summit in June] or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly”.’ 🇩🇪
China backs ‘all efforts aimed at peace’ in Ukraine, ready for constructive role – SCMP: ‘In an address to Group of 20 (G20) foreign ministers, Wang said Beijing was ready to play a constructive role in any political settlement.’ 🇺🇦
China’s foreign minister backs Trump’s Ukraine peace bid at G20 as US allies rally behind Zelenskiy – Reuters: ‘Wang did not reiterate the point he made at the Munich Security Conference last Friday that all stakeholders in the Russia-Ukraine conflict should participate in any peace talks.’ 🇺🇦🇺🇸
US pressures Kyiv to replace UN resolution condemning Russia – The Washington Post 🇺🇦🇺🇸
Putin and China’s Xi to discuss US-Russia talks held in Saudi Arabia, Kremlin says – SCMP 🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦
Sanctioned Belarus company procuring chip parts via China – Nikkei Asia: ‘a Belarusian company that is part of Russia’s military-industrial complex and sanctioned by the U.S. and other countries, has continued to secure crucial components through Chinese entities’ 🇧🇾
Taiwan to team up with Czechia and Poland in drone production – Focus Taiwan: ‘Drone companies in Taiwan signed agreements with the Czech-Taiwanese Business Chamber (CTBC) and Polish company Farada Group Ltd. this week, the Aerospace Industrial Development Corp. (AIDC) said’ 🇨🇿🇵🇱
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📊💥
Topman haven Rotterdam: „Een handelsoorlog is slecht nieuws” – NOS 🇳🇱
Koop Europees! – is dat een goed idee? – Marike Stellinga in NRC 🇪🇺
US Treasury’s Bessent and China’s Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 trade economic complaints in call – Reuters 🇺🇸
Trump administration proposes fees on the use of China’s commercial ships it says could help counter the country’s maritime dominance – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
Trump tariffs already shake up China’s factory heartland Dongguan – AFP 🇺🇸
The Trump administration told Mexican officials to impose duties on Chinese imports to avoid US tariffs – Bloomberg: ‘Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has ramped up efforts to crack down on cheap imports from China, a move to support domestic industries as well as appease a Trump administration’ 🇲🇽
Taiwan security official Josep Wu 吳釗燮 denies Trump’s chip theft accusation – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼
China’s CATL to deepen battery R&D cooperation with Volkswagen – Reuters 🇩🇪
Tesla nieuwste hoop geplaagd Nissan 日産 – NRC 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇹🇼
Foxconn 鴻海 goes after Nissan 日産 EV business by proposing Honda 本田 tie-up – Nikkei Asia 🇹🇼🇯🇵
Chinese carmakers expand into growing Central Asian markets – Caixin Global
Trump 🇺🇸🟠
Beijing’s hopes to be Ukraine peacemaker collide with its goals on Trump and trade – Reuters: ‘Xi has directed Chinese bureaucrats to study Trump's trade policies and prepare responses to his initial tariffs and threats, two people familiar with the situation say.
China has also deliberately dialed down the tone used by foreign ministry spokespeople to keep prospects of a deal with Trump alive, said the people, two of more than a dozen Reuters interviewed for this story.’ 🇺🇸
US military commander meets Panama Canal administrator to discuss countering China – SCMP 🇺🇸🇵🇦
Amerikaanse regering verbiedt wetenschappers deelname aan klimaatpanel IPCC in Hangzhou – NRC 🇺🇸🇨🇳
Offert Trump Taiwan aan Xi, zoals Oekraïne aan Poetin? – Trouw 🇺🇸🇹🇼
US exempts security funds for Taiwan – Reuters: ‘US$870 million in security exemptions for programs in Taiwan’ 🇺🇸🇹🇼
President Lai urges DPP lawmakers to see Trump’s policies as an opportunity – Focus Taiwan: ‘while Trump’s return to the White House could bring uncertainty, Taiwan should aim to strengthen its global position and expand its influence.’ 🇺🇸🇹🇼
Techoorlog 💽💥
OpenAI uncovers evidence of AI-powered Chinese surveillance tool – The New York Times: ‘to gather real-time reports about anti-Chinese [sic] posts on social media services in Western countries.’
‘a separate Chinese campaign, called Sponsored Discontent, that used OpenAI’s technologies to generate English-language posts that criticized Chinese dissidents.‘ 🇺🇸
OpenAI removes users in China and North Korea suspected of malicious activities – Reuters 🇺🇸🇰🇵
Trump orders use of CFIUS to restrict Chinese investments in strategic areas – Reuters: ‘The official also said the Trump administration will consider new or expanded restrictions on U.S. outbound investment to China in sensitive technologies’ 🇺🇸
Trump administration pushes out top China export policy official Matthew Borman, sources say – Reuters: ‘a senior Commerce Department official overseeing export restrictions on China’ 🇺🇸
Japan warns over threat from China’s chip material export controls – FT: ‘Officials in Tokyo are concerned that the latest rules, combined with a new extraterritorial export control regime […], will require a vast number of Japanese companies’ exports to the US to be reported to Chinese authorities.’ 🇯🇵
Singapore has quietly become a semiconductor powerhouse — and it’s attracting more scrutiny as the global trade war heats up – Bloomberg: ‘the issue of whether the island was being used to transfer embargoed Nvidia chips to China, bypassing US export curbs.’ 🇸🇬🇺🇸
Apple seeks to rely less on China by building iPhone 16e in India – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸🇮🇳
China ready to take control as US and UK back out of AI Action Summit statement – SCMP
China’s top political advisor Wáng Hùníng 王沪宁 stresses strengthening IP rights protection – Xinhua
Microsoft spreekt van ‘baanbrekende’ nieuwe quantumchip, maar experts zijn zeer sceptisch – NRC 🇺🇸
UK investment minister met Chinese turbine company Ming Yang 明阳 last year amid security concerns – POLITICO Europe 🇬🇧
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Europa schrikt wakker: VS blijken de bad guy te kunnen zijn – NRC 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Trumps uitholling van de Navo duwt Europa met de neus op de feiten: het moet voor zichzelf gaan zorgen – de Volkskrant 🇪🇺🇺🇸
America has turned on its friends – FT Editorial Board: ‘Donald Trump’s abandonment of allies is real and will endure’ 🇺🇸
Hoe China voor hackers het paradijs op aarde werd – FD
Why China may face ‘scrutiny’ over using police diplomacy to help developing world – SCMP: ‘Amid worsening geopolitical tensions with the United States, China is moving to promote itself as a security partner — and policing diplomacy has appeared to play a larger role in this.’
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Dirty money from drug sales is flowing through China, greasing the wheels of the fentanyl trade, US officials say – WSJ: ‘Chinese money brokers, part of an underground banking system that has long served the country’s immigrant diaspora, have become go-to partners for fentanyl traffickers and other criminal groups needing to launder illicit drug profits, officials say.’ 🇺🇸
Deze netwerken komen ook voorbij in de podcast Scam Inc over cyberscamcentra.
Commercial flights diverted as Chinese warships undertake apparent live-fire drill in sea between Australia and New Zealand – The Guardian 🇦🇺🇳🇿
Chinese gave live fire warning with planes ‘literally flying across the Tasman’ – ABC News: ‘The defence minister says planes were “literally flying across the Tasman” as China began its exercises, and forced to rapidly divert.’ 🇦🇺🇳🇿
New Zealand says China navy held 2nd live-fire drill in international waters – Reuters: ‘Australia Defence Minister Richard Marles said on Saturday Beijing had failed to give satisfactory reasons for what he called inadequate notice of Friday’s live-fire drill.’ 🇦🇺🇳🇿
Spokesperson slams Australia for slandering China’s lawful military exercises – Xinhua 🇦🇺
Potentieel gevaarlijk spierballenvertoon van Peking met intimidatie als doel? De manier waarop dit werd gedaan suggereert dat het doel was om een signaal af te geven.
Australia’s spy chief Mike Burgess made secret China trip to meet Xi’s top spy Chén Yīxīn 陈一新 – The Sydney Morning Herald: ‘ASIO director-general Mike Burgess’ clandestine mid-2023 trip to Beijing, months before Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s very public China mission’ 🇦🇺
China secures maritime presence in Cook Islands – 1News 🇨🇰🇳🇿
Japan aims to help Philippines monitor South China Sea – Nikkei Asia: ‘and lay the groundwork for an intelligence-sharing agreement to better keep an eye on China's military activities.’ 🇯🇵🇵🇭
French aircraft carrier stages combat drills with Filipinos in disputed South China Sea and visits Philippines – AP 🇫🇷🇵🇭
China’s military says it drove away Philippine aircraft near Spratly Islands – Reuters 🇵🇭
Philippines says China is ‘hindering’ its companies from exploring natural resources in the contested South China Sea – Business Insider 🇵🇭
Philippine police arrest over 450 in ‘Chinese-run’ scam centre raid – China Global South Project 🇵🇭
China’s new submarine may have Typhon missiles in Philippines in its sights, report says – SCMP 🇵🇭
Urgent help sought from China for 100 Thai women forced into human egg farm in Georgia – The Nation 🇹🇭🇺🇸
South African president meets Chinese foreign minister to deepen bilateral cooperation – Xinhua 🇿🇦
Syria’s new president meets Chinese envoy for first time since Assad’s fall – Reuters: ‘China, which backed Assad, saw its embassy in Damascus looted after his fall, and Syria’s new Islamist rulers have installed some foreign fighters including Uyghurs’ 🇸🇾
Chinese and Turkish foreign ministers pledge to expand bilateral cooperation – Xinhua: ‘Türkiye appreciates China’s just position on issues such as the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian issue, supports the six-point consensus jointly proposed by China and Brazil’ 🇹🇷
Chinese and Saudi foreign ministers meet on bilateral relations – Xinhua 🇸🇦
Uyghur freed from captivity in Morocco Idris Hasan arrives in United States – RFA 🇲🇦🇺🇸
China’s anti-drone arms tech draws Mideast interest as militaries seek latest edge – SCMP
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 signs orders to revise military rules – Xinhua: ‘three regulations on the military’s interior order, code of conduct and military formation.’
China economie
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells entrepreneurs ‘east wind’ will carry China above rivals – SCMP: ‘In the 1950s, [Mao Zedong] adopted a phrase from classical literature, “the east wind prevails over the west wind”, to proclaim the eventual victory of socialism over capitalism.’
微观察·习近平总书记出席民营企业座谈会：鼓足信心，大显身手 – 《人民日报》（2025年02月21日 第01版）：“信心和发展，是这场座谈会的鲜明主题。信心来自哪儿？来自党的理论和实践一脉相承、与时俱进。”
“信心，来自中国式现代化的伟大进程。”
“信心，来自中国经济的强大韧性和巨大潜力。”
“信心来自哪儿？还来自上下同心的众志成城。”
“这何尝不是历史的发展规律、时代的前行逻辑？‘长远看还是东风浩荡。’习近平总书记清晰洞见，‘信心很重要。’”
Waar komt vertrouwen (in de ontwikkeling van de private sector) vandaag? Het komt voort uit de consistentie van de theorie en praktijk van de Partij, uit modernisering Chinese stijl, uit de veerkracht en potentie van de Chinese economie en de eenheid van boven en onder.
What did China’s tech entrepreneurs tell Xi Jinping at the symposium? – SCMP
Is Xi’s sudden embrace of business for real? China is left guessing. – The New York Times: ‘Executives are eager for a reset after years in the cold but ever wary of meddling.’
Chinese premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 stresses boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand – Xinhua: ‘Li made the remarks at a study session held by the State Council on Thursday.’
China government spending on citizens lags economic peers – FT: ‘lags behind most members of the Brics group of emerging nations, including Brazil and Russia.’
Tegenvallende winst voor Chinese webwinkel Shein 希音 – FD
China sees record-breaking inter-regional trips in Spring Festival travel rush – Xinhua
China’s top legislature to expedite legislation promoting private economy – Xinhua: ‘will conduct a second reading of the draft private economy promotion law next week and will then solicit further opinions from various sectors to refine the draft.’
China’s central bank vows to enhance yuan amid looming risks from strong US dollar – SCMP: ‘to advance the cross-border use of the yuan and develop the offshore yuan market’
China’s JD.com 京东 and Meituan 美团 to offer social insurance for food delivery riders – Yicai Global
China’s biggest bubble tea chain Mixue 蜜雪 to raise US$443m in Hong Kong IPO – Nikkei Asia
China’s credit card market shrinks 10% in two years amid tougher rules and stiff competition – Yicai Global
China binnenland
Senior CCP official Cài Qí 蔡奇 highlights high-quality development of social work – Xinhua: ‘made the remarks at a meeting held in Beijing and attended by social work department chiefs.’
Chinese provincial boss Jiǎng Chāoliáng 蒋超良, fired over Covid response, facing corruption probe – SCMP: ‘Jiang Chaoliang was removed as Hubei party chief in February 2020 as the central government responded to public anger over what was seen as the botched handling of the outbreak that began in Wuhan, the provincial capital.’
Former senior provincial political advisor Chén Yàn 陈晏 indicted for suspected bribe-taking and abuse of power – Xinhua: ‘after the National Commission of Supervision’s investigations were completed, the Chengdu Municipal People’s Procuratorate in southwest China’s Sichuan Province filed Chen’s case with the city’s intermediate people’s court.’
China’s ‘Ne Zha 2’ animated blockbuster fuels nationalist pride and hostility towards Hollywood – Reuters: ‘the film’s success overseas remains to be seen, sparking intense debates on Chinese social media’
Chinese team finds new bat coronavirus that could infect humans via same route as Covid-19 – SCMP
China outlines key tasks to deepen rural reforms and advance rural revitalisation – Xinhua: ‘As the first policy statement released by China’s central authorities each year, the document is seen as an indicator of policy priorities.’
Hong Kong
Budget 2025: Well-off Hong Kong daunted by record deficits – AFP: ‘Hong Kong has recorded annual deficits exceeding US$20 billion in three of the past four years, according to official figures.’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China’s PLA steps up Taiwan military patrols over Lunar New Year holiday – SCMP 🇨🇳
China escalates cross-Strait military activity under Taiwan President William Lai – CSIS 🇨🇳
Robert Tsao 曹興誠, Taiwanese chip tycoon sanctioned by Beijing, sparks ‘cross-strait affair’ row – SCMP 🇨🇳
Tsao is niet alleen uitgesproken, maar voegt de financiële daad bij zijn woorden. Een campagne om het onklaar te maken is dus te verwachten. Vertrouw SCMP ook niet te veel in zulke gevallen.
Photo shows defence minister Wellington Koo 顧立雄 next to US general during Han Kuang exercises – Taipei Times: ‘US Marine Corps Major General Jay Bargeron, the director of strategic planning and policy of the US Indo-Pacific Command’
‘It is the first time the military has released a photo of an active US general participating in a military exercise with Taiwan’s defense minister.’ 🇺🇸
Government on alert for Chinese-made components in government contracts – Taipei Times
Foreign minister touts Taiwan’s ‘integrated diplomacy’ at Pottinger book launch – Taipei Times
Japan ex-PM Abe Shinzo 安倍 晋三’s widow Akie praises US President Trump in Taiwan – Kyodo News: ‘in a speech at an international security forum in Taipei’
Taiwan binnenland en economie
The coming recall war in Taiwan – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic: ‘My guess is that when the dust settles, we will be in much the same situation that we are now. The main differences will be that, after six months of bitter fighting, politics will be even more polarized than now.’
挺罷免連署站接連被查水表 陳文成基金會：幾十年來第一次被安檢 我們不怕 放馬過來！ – Newtalk
Er waren eerder al berichten dat lokale autoriteiten onder KMT-bestuurders verzamelaars van handtekeningen voor herroepingverkiezingen van KMT-parlementsleden lastigvielen. Dit is de eerste keer dat de gemeente Taipei hiervan beschuldigt wordt.
Executive Yuan to request budget revote – Taipei Times: ‘adding that it could seek a constitutional interpretation and a temporary injunction if the attempt fails.’
‘the total amount of budget cuts was not specified in a general budget bill returned to the Cabinet.’
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council to increase scrutiny over Taitung commissioner Yao Ching-ling 饒慶鈴 (KMT)’s China trips – Taipei Times: ‘after she failed to disclose her meeting with Chinese Taiwan Affairs Office Director Song Tao (宋濤) last month’ 🇨🇳
President Lai lauds national health insurance success ahead of 30th anniversary – Focus Taiwan
KMT proposes a new NHI scheme for long-term care – Taipei Times
ER overcrowding unprecedented, medical group says – Taipei Times
Taiwan called ‘traffic hell’ by road safety group – Focus Taiwan