De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 10 april: Lavrov en Ma Ying-jeou in Peking
Vandaag wat later vanwege familieverplichtingen. Nu kan ik nog wel net de laatste berichten meepakken over de ontmoeting tussen de Chinese president Xi Jinping en de voormalige Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou. De timing van dit bezoek een maand en tien dagen voor de inauguratie van de nieuwe Taiwanese DPP-president Lai Ching-te op 20 mei is geen toeval.
Maar we moeten het belang niet overschatten. Belangrijker zijn de ontwikkelingen in Japan en Zuid-Korea. De Japanse premier Kishida is in Washington, waar hij het bondgenootschap met de VS verder bestendigt. Dit volgt op een steeds stevigere Japanese positionering in de regio.
Dat contrasteert met de enorme overwinning voor de progressieve oppositie in de Zuid-Koreaanse parlementsverkiezingen, wat waarschijnlijk een enorme klap zal betekenen voor het minder nationalistische en meer China-kritische buitenlandbeleid onder de conservatieve President Yoon.
Ma Ying-jeou en Xi Jinping troffen elkaar in november 2015 in een historische bijeenkomst in Singapore. Hoewel ze elkaar toen slechts als Mr Ma en Mr Xi de handen schudden, waren beide mannen op dat moment wel in functie als president.
Toch was de impact van die ontmoeting ook al beperkt. Ma had gehoopt zijn erfenis van toenadering tot Peking en integratie met China hiermee te verankeren. Maar hij was erg impopulair en na de Sunflower Student Movement van 2014 waren de contouren van de historische DPP-overwinning onder Tsai Ing-wen in januari 2015 al zichtbaar.
Was het integratiebeleid van Ma toen al duidelijk op weg naar de uitgang, nu is er van dat Taiwan vrij weinig meer over. Zelfs grote delen van Ma’s KMT zitten niet te wachten om door de steeds Chinees-nationalistischere oud-president terug te worden geduwd naar onverkiesbaar terrein.
Peking maakt een fout als het denkt dat de pan-Blauwe meerderheid in het parlement kansen biedt om Taiwan terug in de tijd naar het Chinese nationalisme van Mr Ma en Mr Xi te trekken. Die pan-Blauwe meerderheid van KMT en TPP kan alleen bestaan omdat beide partijen zich distantiëren van al te extreem pro-Peking standpunten en de aandacht richten op praktische politieke problemen i.p.v. China.
De DPP won in januari de presidentsverkiezingen ondanks ontevredenheid onder vooral jongere kiezers. De DPP behield zelfs iets meer stemmen dan de KMT bij de parlementsverkiezingen, hoewel de KMT dankzij de districten alsnog iets meer zetels kreeg. Als Ma zijn mond had gehouden over een toekomstige hereniging en de betrouwbaarheid van Xi in de dagen voor de verkiezingen, dan had dit hoger kunnen zijn. Beelden van een buigende Ma in Peking in een zaal met Xi waarin DPP-vriendelijke pers niet is toegestaan helpen niet.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
‘Dutch Climate Envoy @jaimedebourbon is in China with four other European🇪🇺 Climate Envoys. They’ll meet with Special Envoy Liu Zhenmin, among others. 🇳🇱 is committed to engaging with 🇨🇳 to seek opportunities for enhanced cooperation on climate action.’ – Embassy of the Netherlands in Beijing, Twitter 🇳🇱
Ahead of Scholz trip, study shows German economy still dependent on China – Reuters: ‘For some categories, such as pharmaceuticals and rare earths such as scandium and yttrium, Germany’s dependence has increased.’ 🇩🇪
Olaf Scholz joins TikTok with a pledge: ‘I won’t dance’ – POLITICO Europe 🇩🇪
Interview: France and Europe engage with China on their terms, in their own interests, ambassador Bertrand Lortholary says – SCMP: ‘It is important for China to understand that what Europe is doing right now, Europe is doing for itself and for Europe’s future.’ 🇫🇷
Zweden zet Chinese verslaggever uit met levenslang terugkeerverbod – de Volkskrant 🇸🇪
Information on the detained Chinese journalist to be deported from Sweden – Kinamedia: ‘In her capacity as an editor of Greenpost, Chen was found to work together with a Chinese intelligence officer. She was also known to work close with the Chinese embassy’ 🇸🇪
Le député Samuel Cogolati porte plainte pour le hacking de son ordinateur – Le Soir 🇧🇪
Overcapaciteit en Europa
EU launches probe into Chinese wind turbines – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
EU pushes to curb China’s green tech market lead – POLITICO Europe: ‘The EU is keen to avoid a mistake it made over the past decade, when China’s solar panel-makers all but killed their European competitors.’ 🇪🇺
EU losing China tech-race, as Beijing prepares to host German CEOs – EU Observer: [Vestager] said wind turbines were just part of a wider Chinese strategy to drive EU firms out of “critical” industrial sectors.’ ‘China was “a partner, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival, and the last two dimensions are increasingly converging,” Vestager said.’ 🇪🇺
Commission updates report on state-induced distortions in China’s economy – European Commission 🇪🇺
China commerce minister Wáng Wentao launches Europe trip defending Chinese EV sector – Reuters: ‘Wang reiterated Beijing's stance that Chinese EV makers did not depend on subsidies to gain a competitive advantage, according to a statement published by the commerce ministry on Monday.’
European ports turned into ‘car parks’ as vehicle imports pile up – FT: ‘Chinese electric cars as one of the leading causes of the problem, with some companies booking shipping delivery slots without ordering onward transportation.’ ‘Some car industry executives said Chinese carmakers were not selling their vehicles in Europe as fast as they expected’
Volkswagen zet ontwikkeling van stekkerauto’s in China in de hoogste versnelling – FD 🇩🇪
China creating ‘unfair competition’ for foreign players, German firms say in survey – SCMP 🇩🇪
German premium carmakers struggle to revive demand in China – Reuters 🇩🇪
‘Fitness centre China’: world champion in development can do more, solve overcapacity, top business leader Joerg Wuttke says – SCMP: ‘China is running the same risk [as Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan] believing that she is unique. That might be the wrong kind of nationalism.’
‘The EU-China relationship will be focusing on jobs: does China create jobs or kill jobs in Europe? This will drive our democratic system in Europe in its search for an answer on “how to respond to China”. At this stage, China does not create enough jobs in Europe. Its market is really not yet matching the openness of our home market.’
The essence of China-EU trade and economic relations is mutual benefit and win-win – Peng Gang, Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the EU for Euractiv: ‘In fact, the secrets behind Chinese products going global have never been the so-called subsidies, but diligence, innovation and competitive awareness of generations of Chinese entrepreneurs. Joerg Wuttke, former President of the EUCCC , once said that China is akin to a fitness club for European companies, and I think the metaphor is quite vivid.’
‘Get used to tighter belts’: how China’s local governments and Communist Party bodies are embracing cost-cutting culture – SCMP: ‘including greater use of new energy vehicles’
Reken maar dat de nieuwe EVs die ze moeten/mogen kopen enkel van Chinese fabrikanten zullen zijn. Daar hebben ze geen formele instructies voor nodig.
Xinhua Commentary: Healthy China-U.S. economic ties require true cooperation over self-interest – Xinhua: ‘This Sinophobic narrative of "Chinese overcapacity" is nothing but a rehash of the "China threat" rhetoric, only to undermine China's domestic growth and international cooperation.’
Xinhua Commentary: Washington should not treat Pacific Islands as its own backyard – Xinhua: ‘This Sinophobic rhetoric is not just disingenuous but downright insulting.’
Rusland 🇨🇳🇷🇺
China and Russia make united stand to reform West-led global system – SCMP: ‘Lavrov confirmed that Xi and Putin will meet this year on the sidelines of the SCO gathering in Kazakhstan and the BRICS summit in Russia’ 🇷🇺
Russia and China to talk about deeper security co-operation in Eurasia, Lavrov says – Reuters: ‘The two countries should oppose “hegemonism” and “any ‘small circle’ that engages in bloc confrontation,” said Wang, China’s top diplomat.’ 🇷🇺
China and Russia hail ‘profound’ ties, vow to fight terrorism – Nikkei Asia 🇷🇺
China and Russia pledge to work together to maintain ‘supply chain stability’ – FT: ‘The ministers’ stalwart expressions of mutual support and veiled condemnation of the US came as Yellen was flying back to Washington after a six-day trip to China.’ 🇷🇺
Beijing ‘does not accept criticism or pressure’ over ties with Russia, Chinese foreign ministry says – AFP 🇷🇺
Russland ist für China ein Juniorpartner – und auch ein Problem – Zeit 🇷🇺
European defence groups warn over reliance on Chinese cotton used in gunpowder – FT: ‘threatens their ability to expand output as western countries race to bolster Ukraine’s overstretched military.’ 🇪🇺
Explainer: Why does China-Europe Express Rail expand so fast and become more efficient – Xinhua
Putin and Xi’s Unholy Alliance: Why the West won’t be able to drive a wedge between Russia and China – Alexander Gabuev for Foreign Affairs 🇷🇺
Xi-Ma 2.0 习馬
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells ex-Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 ‘external interference’ cannot block unification – AFP: ‘In his remarks to Xi, Ma said “young people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait represent the future of the Chinese nation”.’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 in Beijing – Xinhua: ‘The distance of the Strait cannot sever the bond of kinship between compatriots from across the Strait, Xi said.’
No problem that can’t be talked through, President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells Taiwan’s Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 in historic [meh] Beijing talks – SCMP]
After nine years, second Ma-Xi meeting occurs in Beijing – New Bloom: ‘A livestream of the meeting on CtiTV, usually considered among the most blue of Taiwan’s media outlets, cut out at a certain point seemingly because of an intervention by security. Reporters were not allowed to bring their cell phones to the meeting, though photographs were allowed for some outlets. To begin with, the only Taiwanese media outlets allowed to report on the Ma-Xi meeting directly from Beijing were CtiTV, UDN, China Television, TVBS, and ETToday, which are mostly pan-Blue outlets.’
KMT vows transparency in party visits to China – Taipei Times: ‘amid media speculation that Beijing has invited KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) to lead a delegation there in June.’ ‘Earlier, a source said on condition of anonymity that Beijing has invited the KMT, which has captured a plurality of seats in the legislature, for talks to reopen negotiations on a proposed, but never ratified Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement.’
‘Beijing would allegedly push the KMT to change the national curriculum to include materials promoting its “one China” principle and narratives claiming Taiwan is one family with China, they said.’
Het lijkt erop dat we meer duidelijkheid krijgen voor de nieuwe Chinese strategie van grotere druk op Taiwan: gebruik maken van het voordeel van de KMT in het parlement. De vraag is of ze doorhebben (i) hoe slecht het circus rond de gemarginaliseerde Ma valt in Taiwan en (ii) hoe de levensvatbaarheid van de KMT in Taiwan evenredig omgekeerd verband houdt met mate waarin de partij zich tot instrument van Peking laat zien.
Tech War 💽💥
TSMC 台積電 expands US investment by more than 60% to US$65bn after securing US$6.6bn grant – Nikkei Asia: ‘U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said TSMC will also build a previously unannounced third chip plant in Phoenix, Arizona, that will be operational by 2030.’ ‘The first TSMC plant in Arizona will make 4-nanometer chips and is scheduled to begin production in 2025. The company told Nikkei Asia that its second plant, originally intended to produce 3-nm chips, will now also produce 2-nm ones. This plant is scheduled to begin production by 2028, a senior U.S. official said. The third TSMC plant will also produce 2-nm chips, as well as even more advanced semiconductors, according to the company.’ 🇺🇸
TSMC 台積電 expands Japan university collaboration amid worker shortage concern – Nikkei Asia 🇯🇵
TSMC 台積電 reports highest sales for Q1 – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan chip design support majors triple sales in four years – Nikkei Asia
China’s Tianqi Lithium’s US$4bn bet on Chile at risk of backfiring – FT: ‘as the Chilean government works to exert more control over the vast salt flats of the Atacama Desert’ 🇨🇱
Groenland is nog altijd ‘open for business’ – NRC 🇬🇱
Het lege noorden van Zweden is booming: groene industrie trekt duizenden nieuwe inwoners – NRC 🇸🇪
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Taiwanese groups consider overseas headquarters to hedge against Chinese attack – FT: ‘Other people involved in similar discussions said Singapore, Japan, Switzerland or the Netherlands were options for establishing second headquarters.’ 🇸🇬🇯🇵🇨🇭🇳🇱
China-US relations: American state department official Kurt Campbell explains how Beijing risks crossing ‘red line’ with Russia – SCMP 🇺🇸
China labels US comments on Taiwan and AUKUS ‘dangerous’ – Reuters: ‘comments by a senior U.S. diplomat that the AUKUS submarine project between Australia, Britain and the United States could help deter any Chinese move against Taiwan.’ 🇺🇸
South Korea, Canada, and New Zealand under consideration for AUKUS Pillar II partners, says US official – Yonhap News 🇰🇷🇨🇦🇳🇿
Australia downplays Japan’s role in AUKUS, says no plans to add member to defence pact – Reuters 🇦🇺🇯🇵
Expect more joint South China Sea patrols, US says ahead of summits with allies – Reuters 🇺🇸
South China Sea example of China trying to gain territorial space through force, US admiral says – Reuters 🇺🇸
A warning to China? US plans to deploy medium-range missile launchers in the Asia-Pacific – SCMP 🇺🇸
U.S. Army Pacific commander says SM-6, Tomahawk missile launchers to be deployed in Indo-Pacific – Yonhap 🇺🇸
Biden and Kishida to announce 70 agreements at ‘historic’ summit – Nikkei Asia: ‘These include modernizing their alliance’s command structure and enabling the co-production of weapons.’ 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Buitenlandse media in China ondervinden ook na corona nog volop tegenwerking – NRC
Zelfs met drones houdt China buitenlandse journalisten en hun bronnen in de gaten – Trouw
Media Freedoms Report 2023: ‘Masks Off, Barriers Remain’ – The Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Canada spies found China interfered in last two elections, probe hears – Reuters 🇨🇦
US Coast Guard says boardings of Chinese fishing vessels alongside local police in South Pacific legal – Reuters 🇺🇸
US considers easing warnings for Americans traveling to China – Reuters 🇺🇸
China vows to protest ‘every single incident’ of mistreatment of Chinese arrivals in US – SCMP 🇺🇸
Top Vietnamese lawmaker in China after president’s surprise ouster – Nikkei Asia 🇻🇳
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 calls on Vietnam to deploy ‘political wisdom’ to manage ties – SCMP
China’s No 3 official Zhào Lèjì 赵乐际 to lead delegation to North Korea on ‘goodwill visit’ – SCMP 🇰🇵
‘Good and old friends’: Singapore Deputy PM Heng Swee Keat 王瑞杰 meets China’s Vice-President Hán Zhèng 韩正 in Beijing – The Straits Times 🇸🇬
President Santokhi met toestel van KLM via Nederland op staatsbezoek naar China – Suriname Herald 🇸🇷
China economie
China’s Premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 assembles economic experts ahead of hotly anticipated first-quarter data release – SCMP: ‘China needs to “focus on scientific and technological innovation to promote industrial innovation and the outstanding issue of insufficient effective demand” as it looks to build internal growth momentum, an official readout quoted the premier as saying in the Monday meeting.’
Ratings agency Fitch downgrades China debt outlook over economic uncertainty – The Guardian
China says Fitch rating outlook downgrade ‘regrettable’ – Xinhua
China turns up heat with regulators and banks under the microscope amid focus on financial revamp – SCMP
China’s stockbrokers see salaries slashed for second year amid slumping market, crackdown on flashy finance executives – SCMP
China insurer Ping An 平安’s trust arm misses payment over property downturn – Nikkei Asia
China’s property crisis hits small regional banks harder than big players – Nikkei Asia
Regionale verschillen nemen alleen maar verder toe.
Chinese tourists spent more per trip over a holiday than in 2019 for the first time since the pandemic started, adding to signs that consumption is recovering – Bloomberg
‘[Bloomberg’s headline] might be a little optimistic. Spending may be up 1.1% since 2019, but in those four years real GDP was up 20% and nominal GDP up 28%. This suggests that Chinese are spending a much smaller share of their income per trip than they were in 2019.’ – Michael Pettis, Twitter
Chinese hotels with three-star ratings or more have been told to accept payments with foreign bank cards – Bloomberg
China scraps ownership caps on some telecoms services, courting foreign capital resurgence – SCMP
China shakes wheat market with cancelled shipments from US and Australia – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸🇦🇺
China Construction Bank 建行 seeks wind-up of property developer Shimao 世茂 in Hong Kong– Nikkei Asia
China binnenland
China investigates senior executive at top defence group CETC – FT
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Military eyes closer exchanges with US, Taiwan navy chief Tang Hua 唐華 says visiting Maryland expo – Taipei Times: ‘Before attending the Maryland conference, Tang visited Hawaii, home of the US Indo-Pacific Command, for a Pacific Fleet change-of-command ceremony.’ 🇺🇸
Australian opposition lawmaker visiting Taiwan broaches sensitive topic of security cooperation – Reuters 🇦🇺
Taiwan-New Zealand deal allows pineapple exports to start – Taipei Times 🇳🇿
Taiwan launches projects with Central American Integration System to help Guatemala and Belize – Taipei Times 🇬🇹🇧🇿
Taiwan’s annual war games to practice countering Chinese drill-turned-attack – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Taiwan-built Teng Yun 2 UAV makes 2nd attempt to pass combat readiness tests – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan politiek
President-elect Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) selects ex-DPP chair Cho Jung-tai 卓榮泰 as premier – Focus Taiwan: ‘Former Culture Minister Cheng Li-chiun (鄭麗君) was named vice premier in the incoming government, and Kung Ming-hsin (龔明鑫), the current head of the National Development Council, was named secretary-general of the Executive Yuan.’
Premier-designate Cho still working on putting together new Cabinet – Focus Taiwan: ‘Lai vowed to build a democratic alliance by “bringing in talent from different political parties” in his administration.’
520人事》國安會吳釗燮、國防部顧立雄、國安局蔡明彥 – 自由時報
Lai signaleert: continuïteit.
De eerste premier van Tsai, Lin Chuan, had de ondankbare taak om de grootste controversiële projecten in gang te zetten. Zoals gebruikelijk in de Taiwanese politiek – waarin de president niet kan opstappen – stapte hij na een korte periode al op om de verantwoordelijkheid te nemen. Zijn opvolger was Lai Ching-te, die moeite had veel voor elkaar te krijgen. Pas toen Tsai de doener Su Tseng-chang tot premier benoemde, ging alles goed lopen en werden er stappen gezet op basis van het goede voorwerk van Lin.
Onder DPP-president Chen Shui-bian had de regering ook geen meerderheid in het parlement. Dat gebruikte de KMT om Chens premiers het leven zuur te maken – Cho gaat het nog moeilijk krijgen.
Four DPP lawmakers eyeing tougher punishments for child porn offences – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Retired rear admiral Hsia Fu-hsiang 夏復翔 acquitted of collaborating with Chinese espionage – Taipei Times: ‘the [golf] events were held at a time when cross-strait interactions were frequent’
Taiwan quake death toll rises to 16 with 3 more bodies recovered on hiking trail – AFP
Hualien tourism industry to be hit by NT$5.3bn [€150m] loss following earthquake – Taipei Times
Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an 蔣萬安 (KMT) visits damaged buildings, announces ‘major urban renewal era’ – Taipei Times
Er zijn veel slechte huizen in Taiwan.
The real reason Taiwan handled the earthquake well: How the international press overlooked the significant checks and balances democracy has brought to Taiwan – Courtney Donovan Smith for Taipei Times