De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 19 april: jaarverslag MIVD, overcapaciteit
Prettig weekend.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
MIVD: Nederland door Oekraïneoorlog nog aantrekkelijker cyber- en spionagedoelwit voor Rusland – NRC: „De MIVD signaleert ook een toename van cyberaanvallen vanuit China. Defensie werd zelf gehackt, samen met 20.000 doelwitten wereldwijd. Verder zijn vooral Nederlandse halfgeleider, lucht- en ruimtevaart en maritieme industrie en kennisinstellingen spionagedoelwit, omdat Nederland veel hoogwaardige kennis in huis heeft op deze gebieden. China gebruikt de kennis om zijn eigen krijgsmacht verder uit te bouwen.” 🇳🇱
MIVD perkt digitale bewegingsvrijheid van Russische hackers in – Ministerie van Defensie: „De Nederlandse halfgeleider, lucht- en ruimtevaart en maritieme industrie en onze kennisinstellingen zijn voor China een steeds groter spionagedoelwit.” 🇳🇱
Jaarverslag MIVD 2023 – Ministerie van Defensie: „zag 2023 vooral een China dat steeds meer zijn eigen strategische belangen liet prevaleren boven het behouden van een goede relatie met het Westen.”
„China’s versterkte relatie met Rusland droeg in 2023 direct en indirect bij aan het in stand houden van de Russische oorlogsinspanningen in Oekraïne. Daarmee verzwakt China Nederlandse en bondgenootschappelijke maatregelen tegen Rusland.” 🇳🇱
Chinese spies target Dutch industries to strengthen military, Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD says – Reuters 🇳🇱
Chinese ballet to illuminate Dutch stadium in Heerenveen – Xinhua 🇳🇱
EU sees signs China supplying dual-use components to Russia, Dombrovskis says – Reuters: ‘fears China could be emboldened to increase shipments if the West's resolve to oppose Russia's war in Ukraine weakens’ 🇺🇦
China is a threat to Europe’s gunpowder supply, Saab CEO warns – POLITICO Europe: ‘Western defense firms should look to diversify their sources, said Johansson.’ 🇪🇺
Ukraine delegation visits Taiwan to garner reconstruction support – Focus Taiwan: ‘delegation led by the Ukrainian government’s purchasing platform PROZOROO’ 🇺🇦
Dit komt aardig in de richting van een officiële delegatie. Maar de vraag is of Chinese steun voor de Zwitserse vredesconferentie überhaupt nog te redden valt.
Senior CCP official Liú Jiàncháo 刘建超 meets with guests from Nepal and Germany – Xinhua: ‘The German delegation, meanwhile, was led by Jens Spahn, the deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag.’ 🇩🇪
Xinhua Commentary: Green cooperation holds potential for China, Germany – Xinhua 🇩🇪
Strengere regels voor Britse investeringen en export van hightech naar China – FD 🇬🇧
UK signals potential curbs on Chinese investment amid ‘derisking’ push – POLITICO Europe: ‘The measures go some way towards delivering on promises made by Sunak to U.S. President Joe Biden to crack down on British investments flowing into cutting-edge technologies such as AI and facial recognition which could undermine Western national security.’ 🇬🇧
UK proposes crackdown on foreign security risks to university sector – FT: ‘UK university vice-chancellors will be summoned for a briefing from the intelligence agencies on hostile states targeting British academia’ ‘More funding may also be channelled towards the Research Collaboration Advice Team’ 🇬🇧
CCP delegation visits Georgia – Xinhua: ‘led by Chen Zhou, deputy head of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee’ ‘at the invitation of the Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia Party.’ 🇬🇪
Former Kosovo prime minister Avdullah Hoti visiting Taiwan – Focus Taiwan: ‘When Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, Taiwan was among a handful of nations that immediately recognized its independence.’ 🇽🇰
Israeli and German envoys warn of rising antisemitism at Taipei Holocaust Remembrance event – Focus Taiwan: ‘Taiwan has since 2016 observed International Holocaust Remembrance Day’ 🇩🇪🇮🇱
Overcapaciteitencalamiteiten 🇪🇺🏭
Visit to China by German Chancellor Scholz shows divisions in EU over how to engage with Beijing on trade and Russia – SCMP: ‘Critics said Scholz’s China trip was reminiscent of his predecessor Angela Merkel.’ 🇩🇪
Germany’s China shock: as Scholz leaves Beijing, others raise alarm about waning economic honeymoon – SCMP: ‘Now, with the German economy ailing, some predict its China shock has arrived.’ 🇩🇪
Germany’s doomed China strategy – Martin Sandbu in FT: ‘income from China investments generates profits for German shareholders but not salaries for German workers.’ 🇩🇪
De interne markt is niet per se meer hét succesnummer van de EU: dit zijn de drie plagen – NRC 🇪🇺
Draghi: „Europa heeft nood aan industriepact zoals China en VS” – De Tijd 🇪🇺
Mario Draghi: Radical Change—Is What Is Needed – Groupe d’études géopolitiques: ‘Without strategically designed and coordinated policy actions, it is logical that some of our industries will shut down capacity or relocate outside the EU.’ 🇪🇺
Enrico Letta: Much more than a Market – Groupe d’études géopolitiques: ‘a fifth freedom to the existing four, to enhance research, innovation and education in the Single Market.’ 🇪🇺
China warns West of ‘survival of the fittest’ as manufacturing boosts economy – FT: ‘officials assert that China’s green industries, which have benefited from sweeping subsidies and government protection, are the result of “market forces”.’
China’s economy seeing ‘seismic shifts’ and imbalances like nothing Beijing predicted, senior economist Liú Yuánchūn 刘元春 says – SCMP: ‘He called for new ways of thinking to assess overcapacity in new and strategic industries’
China steelmakers show overcapacity strain as US battens import hatches – Nikkei Asia: ‘are seeking an escape by expanding exports’
US president Biden to call for tripling tariffs on Chinese steel – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
China’s ‘red circle’ law firms rush to tap other markets – FT: ‘rapidly increasing their international presence and working for fees that are sometimes half those of western rivals.’
‘Overcapaciteit’ in de dienstensector?
Tech War 💽💥
ASML Q1 bookings miss forecast, but China sales hold up – Reuters: ‘but gearing up for strong growth in 2025 due to strong demand for AI and memory chips, including from TSMC of Taiwan’ ‘Sales of ASML’s lithography systems to customers in China made up a record 49% of the total in the first quarter’ 🇳🇱
Chipmaker TSMC 台積電 posts its first profit growth in a year, with a 9% rise in net income to US$7 billion in the first quarter after AI demand fuels business – Bloomberg 🇹🇼
TSMC 台積電 plans to charge customers more for chips made outside Taiwan – FT: ‘the cost of production outside of Taiwan is significantly higher.’
Nokia cuts orders with China-listed supplier Foxconn Industrial Internet 工业富联 as US pushes ‘clean network’ – Nikkei Asia 🇫🇮🇹🇼
Chinese diplomats are quietly meeting with Hill staffers about TikTok – POLITICO: ‘TikTok, which is owned by the Beijing-based company ByteDance, has repeatedly denied a relationship with the Chinese government and sought to distance itself from its Chinese origins.’ 🇺🇸
Laat het aan de Chinese diplomaten om hun eigen bedrijven in de weg te zitten. De Nederlandse overheid zet zich ook in voor Nederlandse bedrijven, maar het punt van TikTok is juist dat ze (valselijk) claimen geen Chinees bedrijf te zijn.
Exclusive: ByteDance’s TikTok quizzed by EU on TikTok Lite launch in France and Spain – Reuters: ‘an app with a new functionality aimed at users aged 18+’ 🇪🇺
Taiwan is ramping up international cooperation deals with countries like Canada, Czechia, France, and Germany in recent months as it parlays its role as the world’s chip kingpin to boost its global standing – Bloomberg 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇨🇿
Als al die verschillende Europese vertegenwoordigen in Taipei afzonderlijk lobbyen voor samenwerkingen en uitwisselingen, kan Taiwan ons in Europa mooi tegen elkaar uitspelen.
China lays out 3-year plan to build digital workforce and overcome shortfall of workers needed to win tech race – SCMP
China rallies aviation brainpower to get widebody C929 off the ground, amp up Airbus and Boeing competition – SCMP
Japan Inc. makes a renewed US push as China fears mount – Reuters: ‘Almost half of Japanese companies operating in China did not invest there last year or reduced investment, a survey showed in January.’ 🇯🇵
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
India to place liaison officers in US commands to strengthen defence cooperation – The Economic Times 🇮🇳
Australia unveils new defence strategy, with eye on ‘coercive’ China – AFP 🇦🇺
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Why Chinese EVs will not take over the world –
Xi signals firm strategy but flexible tactics at China’s Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference – Neil Thomas for Jamestown China Brief
Who is seeing the real America? – China Media Project: ‘The videos claim that theft by African Americans is not considered a crime’
Status Symbol: As foreign luxury brands face a reckoning in China, homegrown designers and labels see an opening – The Wire China
What might the future hold for Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy? – Huynh Tam Sang for The Diplomat
Podcasts
Veroveren goedkope Chinese e-auto's de Europese auto-industrie? – De Volkskrant Elke Dag 🍎
A Chinese Perspective on the Russia-Ukraine War: A Conversation with Dr Zhao Hai – CSIS China Power 🍎
Article 23: Implications for Hong Kong – GMFUS China Global 🍎
A glow-up for China’s state-owned enterprises – FT News Briefing 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China foreign ministry welcomes Blinken’s visit to China as tensions simmer – Reuters: ‘Blinken will depart on April 23 for a four-day trip to China’ 🇺🇸
China could threaten critical infrastructure in a conflict, NSA chief says – The New York Times: ‘General Haugh said China was securing access on critical networks ahead of a direct confrontation between the two countries.’ 🇺🇸
FBI says Chinese hackers preparing to attack US infrastructure – Reuters 🇺🇸
China holds another live-fire drill along Myanmar border as concerns over rebel uprisings grow – SCMP: ‘was organised by the PLA’s Southern Theatre Command and is a live-fire air defence exercise involving both ground and air forces’
‘This is the third such live-fire drill Beijing has made public since an alliance of rebel groups in northern Myanmar launched an offensive against the country’s military junta last October.’ 🇲🇲
Chinese warships at Cambodian base for months, CSIS analysis shows – Nikkei Asia 🇰🇭
Chinese state firm agrees US$400m loan for Niger junta in return for oil – SCMP: ‘will see the Chinese company advance the money to help Niger’s military rulers meet short-term obligations as the economy struggles to recover from the impact of sanctions.’ 🇳🇪
Minister Ramdin: „Schuldherschikking met China op technisch niveau reeds afgerond” – Suriname Herald 🇸🇷
China foreign minister says Beijing and Jakarta want regional peace and stability – Reuters: ‘Wang also called for all parties in the Gaza conflict to exercise restraint, and said the United States should support a United Nations resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza.’ 🇮🇩
Jokowi asks China to help build new capital’s transport system – Nikkei Asia 🇮🇩
Zuid-Chinese Zee
China sounds warning after Philippines and US announce most expansive military drills yet – The Guardian: ‘their first ever military exercises outside the south-east Asian country’s territorial waters’ ‘annual Balikatan or “shoulder-to-shoulder” drills’ 🇺🇸🇵🇭
South China Sea: will Beijing ramp up militarisation after US missile system deployed in the Philippines? – SCMP 🇺🇸🇵🇭
Beijing denies its South China Sea deal with former Philippine leader Duterte was a ‘secret’ – SCMP 🇵🇭
Chinese militia boats painted white to look like coast guard – GMA News: ‘Our most conclusive evidence is that they are making use of Chinese Maritime Militia as their alternate vessels’ 🇵🇭
Taiwan coast guard opens satellite link connecting to Itu Aba/Taiping Island in South China Sea – Taipei Times 🇹🇼
China economie
Chinese economie zit in de lift, maar Chinezen merken daar nog niks van – NOS
Why so many Chinese graduates cannot find work: Our number-crunching suggests that their plight could be much worse than previously thought – The Economist
China reforms its unloved state-owned enterprises to win back investors – FT: reflect their continued economic prominence and an ongoing campaign by Beijing to improve financial performance.’ ‘Sceptical analysts point out that the convergence of returns is more about privately owned companies struggling than SOEs improving.’
China’s central bank warns against ‘one-sided’ pursuit of credit expansion – Reuters
China is moving towards full monetary independence – Russell Napier for FT
China binnenland
China is cracking down on delinquent debtors by barring them from buying bullet-train tickets and forbidding them from going on vacation or staying in nice hotels – WSJ: ‘The number of people on a publicly available government delinquency blacklist has jumped by nearly 50% since late 2019 to 8.3 million today.’ ‘Scholars who study the issue say China urgently needs a nationwide personal-bankruptcy system’
China awards medals to Shenzhou-16 astronauts – Xinhua
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
KMT lawmakers to visit China for ‘peaceful’ talks by May 20, caucus convener Fu Kun-chi 傅崐萁 says – Focus Taiwan: ‘According to local media, the trip will involve about 20 lawmakers and other senior officials from the party, including KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), former KMT Deputy Chairman Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) and former Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平).’ 🇨🇳
China is talking to Taiwan’s next leader, just not directly – The Economist 🇨🇳
Taiwan trade tsar John Deng 鄧振中 seeks new deals with more countries, braces for possible Trump win – Nikkei Asia
Taiwan’s foreign ministry warns against trusting documents sold on dark web – Focus Taiwan: ‘following local media reports on Thursday that confidential diplomatic documents are up for sale on the dark web.’
China sends fighter jets to shadow US Navy plane over Taiwan Strait – Reuters 🇺🇸🇨🇳
US lawmakers have a fix for Taiwan’s weapons backlog: Build them on the island – POLITICO: ‘want to allow Taiwan to build some U.S.-designed systems themselves under license’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan binnenland en economie
KMT lawmakers slam decision to designate J.W. Kuo 郭智輝 economic affairs minister – Taipei Times: ‘saying that he has a “morally dubious character,” has close ties to China and is a known donor to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).’
J.W. Kuo 郭智輝 to prioritise electricity supply – Taipei Times
Executive Yuan approves tax breaks – Taipei Times: ‘tax breaks to small businesses if they increase employee wages.’
KMT amendment making contempt of legislature offence would have ‘chilling effect’, deputy justice minister says – Taipei Times