De Chinese Wouden, maandag 7 oktober: heffingen elektrische auto’s bevestigd
Welkom terug van de Golden Week-vakantie in China! Geheel volgens verwachting zijn de Europese invoerheffingen op elektrische auto’s aangenomen. Slecht vijf landen stemden tegen. Hongarije, Slovenië, Slowakije en stemden bij de proefstemming al tegen, daar voegt zich nu Duitsland bij. Het meeste relevantie om te begrijpen wat er gebeurt, vind je in mijn selectie in de sectie Handel.
In vergelijking met niet alleen de Verenigde Staten en Canada, maar ook landen als Brazilië, Indonesië en Turkije valt het nog allemaal wel mee wat voor maatregelen de Europese Unie – de grootste en dus belangrijkste afzetmarkt voor China – neemt.
De Chinese strategie van afpellen van weifelende krachten rondom de grote vijand (nu: de VS) maakt Europa als een logisch doelwit om als enige van de bovenstaande wél direct te straffen. Maar de lidstaten maken het erger, door luid en duidelijk aan te geven dat ze open staan voor selectieve belong én straf.
Dat voorspelt moeilijkheden bij wat nu komen gaat. Ten eerste lopen de onderhandelingen nog en moet de definitieve oplossing waarvoor deze heffingen een middel zijn nog worden gevonden. Chinese vergelding moet nog komen en de tegenstanders hebben gelijk dat dit op termijn de investeringen in Europa door Chinese bedrijven kan beïnvloeden.
Ten tweede is het probleem wat ten grondslag ligt aan deze uitdaging groter dan dit ene moment. De enorme Chinese staatssteun maakt het moeilijk voor Europese bedrijven om te concurreren met de nieuwe Chinese merken. Maar die concurrentiestrijd is ook met gelijk speelveld al heel erg moeilijk, omdat de Chinese bedrijven ondertussen gewoon erg goed zijn geworden.
Met deze heffingen hebben we een beetje tijd en bescherming gekocht – nu volgt de veel moeilijkere vraag hoe Europa daar gebruik van gaat maken om de eigen autoindustrie bij de tijd te krijgen. De onderlinge verdeeldheid en kwetsbaarheid voor buiten-Europese invloeden maakt een samenhangend antwoord moeilijker.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Minister van economisch zaken Dirk Beljaarts (PVV): „Op de handelsrelatie met China moet je zuinig zijn” – NRC: „Nederland staat grotendeels alleen in het diplomatieke touwtrekken rondom ASML. Maar Beljaarts probeert een coalitie van gelijkgestemde industrielanden op te zetten, met onder meer Polen, België, Italië, Duitsland en Frankrijk.”
„Om Europa niet in de verdrukking te laten komen tussen de VS en China, moet de EU een volwaardige zelfstandige chipindustrie opzetten, vindt Beljaarts.”
„De Chips Act, het stimuleringsplan voor de halfgeleiderindustrie van de EU, verdient volgens Draghi herziening en uitbreiding. Nu Eurocommissaris Thierry Breton, gangmaker van de Chips Act, uit Brussel verdwenen is, ziet Beljaarts een rol voor Nederland.” 🇳🇱
KLM wil bescherming van Brussel tegen „oneerlijke Chinese concurrentie” – ANP 🇳🇱
蔡英文卸任後首次出訪 10/12獲高規格禮遇前往捷克 – 自由時報:「據了解,經與歐洲國家及賴清德政府多次溝通,蔡英文將於本月12日出訪歐洲捷克等國家」
「蔡英文今年中即鎖定卸任後出訪歐洲國家,一度落在8、9月間,但考量歐洲多個國家正值元首改選的敏感時機,顧及當地政情、互動脈絡,並與相關國家及賴清德政府多次密集溝通、達成共識後,最後敲定10月出訪捷克等歐洲國家。」 🇨🇿🇪🇺
蔡英文擬10/12出訪歐洲3國 考量中方干擾安全問題極為低調 – ETtoday 🇨🇿🇪🇺
De voormalige Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen zou volgens meerdere Taiwanese media vanaf 12 oktober op reis gaan naar drie Europese landen, waaronder Tsjechië. Om gedoe met China te voorkomen en vanwege haar veiligheid zijn de andere twee landen nog hoogst onbekend en zijn de voorbereidingen low-key. De nieuwsberichten noemen hoe huidig vice-president Hsiao Bi-khim werd gevolgd door Chinese functionarissen tijdens haar bezoek aan Tsjechië, Polen en Litouwen tussen haar verkiezing en inauguratie in als reden voor de voorzichtigheid.
Voordat Tsai werd opgevolgd door Lai waren er al geruchten dat ze na haar aftreden naar Praag zou.
„Für Propaganda verantwortlich”: Chinesisches Netzwerk in Deutschland aufgedeckt – NTV: „Die Namen der ‘Einflussagenten’ stehen auf einer geleakten Liste, die dem Sender und anderen internationalen Medien zugespielt wurde.” 🇩🇪
Ruslands oorlog 🇷🇺
Chinese deputy envoy Gěng Shuǎng 耿爽 urges UN Security Council to keep attention on probe of Nord Stream explosions – Xinhua: ‘The ambassador said China supports the draft presidential statement circulated by Russia on the Nord Stream pipeline explosions and welcomes the changes and adjustments Russia made to the draft in light of the comments of council members.’ 🇷🇺🇩🇪
China supports Russia at UN Nord Stream debate in united stand against US-led West – SCMP 🇷🇺
Foreign minister Lin Chia-lung 林佳龍 (DPP) reiterates Taiwan’s support to visiting Ukrainian lawmakers – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇦
Dodging bullets to saving lives: Ukrainian doctors bring medical resilience to Taiwan – Focus Taiwan: ‘a four-week clinical exchange program at MacKay Memorial Hospital. The course is the first of its kind in Taiwan since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war.’
‘Tsai, […] has led three medical missions composed of MacKay medical staff to Ukraine and is preparing to lead a fourth’ 🇺🇦
Handel 🚗🇪🇺
EU-landen stemmen in met heffingen op Chinese auto’s, ‘nee’ van Duitsland zet verhoudingen in Duitse coalitie op scherp – NRC 🇪🇺🇩🇪
EU gaat extra importkosten op elektrische auto’s uit China heffen -Wat zijn de gevolgen? – Trouw
EU countries overcome German resistance and vote for duties on Chinese EVs – POLITICO Europe: ‘Ten countries voted in favor and five against, while 12 abstained’
‘That means that, under its rules of engagement, the committee delivered “no opinion” on the European Commission’s plans, said five EU diplomats, who were granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. In practice, that means the Commission is free to decide on next steps.’
‘One EU diplomat told POLITICO the Commission would publish the legal text for the duties before Oct. 30, when the executive is legally required to complete the probe. They would take effect from the day after.
That would still leave time to seek a negotiated settlement on setting guaranteed minimum prices for Chinese EVs that would offset the impact of state subsidies for its manufacturers.’ 🇪🇺
Commission proposal to impose tariffs on imports of battery electric vehicles from China obtains necessary support from EU Member States – European Commission: ‘In parallel, the EU and China continue to work hard to explore an alternative solution that would have to be fully WTO-compatible, adequate in addressing the injurious subsidization established by the Commission’s investigation, monitorable and enforceable.’ 🇪🇺
China EV tariff vote leaves EU relieved yet wary over Beijing’s likely retaliation – SCMP: ‘EU sources expect China’s retaliation to come in earnest at the start of November, when the EV tariffs are likely to have been signed into law and taken effect.’ 🇪🇺
China’s commerce ministry urges EU to get back to right track of resolving trade disputes through consultations – Xinhua: ‘“China firmly opposes the draft final ruling of the EU side, but has also noted its political will to continue to resolve the issue through negotiations,” said the spokesperson’
‘“China will take all possible measures to firmly defend the interests of Chinese enterprises,” the spokesperson added.’ 🇨🇳
商务部新闻发言人就欧盟投票通过电动汽车反补贴案终裁草案答记者问 – 商务部新闻办公室:“中方坚决反对欧方的终裁草案,但也注意到欧方表达要继续通过谈判解决问题的政治意愿。〔……〕中方也必将采取一切措施坚定维护中国企业的利益。” 🇨🇳
Xinhua Commentary: EU’s protectionist tariffs on Chinese EVs threaten cooperation and green transition - Xinhua 🇨🇳
‘CCCEU Statement on EU Member States Voted in Favour of Anti-Subsidy Tariffs on Chinese EVs ⬇️⬇️’ – China Chamber of Commerce to the EU (CCCEU) 欧盟中国商会, Twitter 🇨🇳
‘For months, there's been an unusual trend of Chinese Media Group journalists sharing posts on YuYuan TanTian with mailing lists of journalists. These have often turned out to represent official thinking, including on EU-China trade spat An interesting one landed this morning’ – Finbarr Bermingham, Twitter
Het argument is dat de heffingen Chinese investeringen afschrikken, omdat – hoe hoog ook – ze ingesteld zijn op basis van de claim van Chinese staatssteun die Chinese producenten in EU ook gevoelig maakt voor onderzoek onder de Foreign Subsidy Regulation waarover de Commissie laatst binnenviel bij Nuctech.
Carmakers don’t plan immediate price changes to Chinese-made EVs after EU backs tariffs – Reuters
„EU heeft belangrijke troeven als handelsoorlog met China uitbreekt” – BNR 🇪🇺
EU headed for ‘economic cold war’ with China, Hungary’s Orbán says – Reuters 🇭🇺
VW CEO Blume says China’s EV makers should be allowed to avert higher tariffs by investing in EU – Automotive News Europe 🇩🇪
Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume is bracing for potential retaliation from Beijing over EV tariffs, Bild am Sonntag reports – Bloomberg 🇩🇪
Sweden hopes for Volvo Cars deal if EU approves tariffs on Chinese EVs – Reuters 🇸🇪
French Cognac producers accuse the government of abandoning them after the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on electric vehicles from China – Bloomberg 🇫🇷
Indonesia bans Chinese e-commerce firm Temu over fears its small enterprises could be ‘destroyed’ – CNA 🇮🇩
Tech War 💽💥
Europe eyes bigger, fewer telco firms in envy of US and China – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Japan steekt miljarden in terugkeer op mondiale chipmarkt – NRC 🇯🇵
Indian companies move in as US cuts China out of its solar industry – FT: ‘company used to source its cells from Vietnam and Malaysia, but now purchases primarily from India to insulate itself from new tariffs.’ 🇮🇳🇺🇸
Er kleven ook risico’s aan het enthousiast omhelzen van de Chinese economische kansen voor ASEAN-landen.
TSMC signs Arizona deal with US chip test firm Amkor – Taipei Times 🇺🇸
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Editorial: No to Asia’s NATO – The Jakarta Post: ‘Even if he does stand the test of time, like his predecessor Fumio Kishida, Ishiba does not have much to offer in order to lure ASEAN leaders amid Japan’s declining economic power and the rising economic scale of ASEAN. All nations in the region still consider Japan their major investment source and key trading partner, but ASEAN now has greater bargaining power.’ 🇯🇵🇮🇩
Six North Korean military officers killed in Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk, Interfax-Ukraine reports – The Kyiv Independent 🇰🇵🇺🇦
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Attack on Chinese nationals near Pakistan’s Karachi airport leaves 2 dead, 10 injured – SCMP: ‘Separatist militant group the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) said in a statement that it had “targeted a high-level convoy of Chinese engineers and investors” coming from Karachi’s airport.’ 🇵🇰
Hack afluistersystemen van Amerikaanse justitie gelinkt aan China – de Volkskrant 🇺🇸
A cyberattack tied to the Chinese government penetrated the networks of a swath of US broadband providers – WSJ: ‘potentially accessing information from systems the federal government uses for court-authorized network wiretapping requests.’ 🇺🇸
What is China’s next move as the Middle East violence escalates? – SCMP: ‘there are reputational risks if it cannot live up to its self-appointed image as a mediator.’
China buys nearly all of Iran’s oil exports, but has options if Israel attacks – The New York Times: ‘It buys more than 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports.’ ‘An estimated 15 percent of China’s oil imports come from Iran’ 🇮🇷🇮🇱
Philippines accuses China of assaulting Vietnamese fishermen in South China Sea – Reuters: ‘Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Año said on Friday his country stood with Vietnam in denouncing Sunday’s “egregious act”.’ 🇵🇭🇻🇳
China’s bullet trains [actually a normal 120–160 km/h, in Laos’s case] extend toward Singapore despite debt fears – Bloomberg: ‘Many of these projects will take decades to justify their upfront costs — and that’s according to people who support them.’
China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier puts jets through paces after skirting Japanese atoll – SCMP: ‘spotted in waters southeast of the Philippines, carrying out manoeuvres as the US and its regional partners prepare for joint military exercises.’ 🇯🇵🇵🇭🇺🇸
Joe Biden ‘sent Xi Jinping congratulatory message’ to mark China’s 75th National Day – SCMP: ‘as the US Department of State appeared to deviate from its past diplomatic practice of sending a formal congratulatory message ahead of China’s National Day.’ 🇺🇸
Top Western consulting firms have signed thousands of contracts across China as Washington and Beijing seek to untangle economies – WSJ: ‘Many of the firms have taken on extensive work for government agencies and state-controlled companies in China’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 and Kim Jong Un 金正恩 exchange congratulatory messages over 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties – Xinhua 🇰🇵
China and North Korea mark 75th anniversary of ties with vows of cooperation – Reuters 🇰🇵
China economie
China’s travel industry faces reality check of ‘worst ever’ season – SCMP: ‘a profound crisis lurking beneath the surface of apparent prosperity, marked by China’s weak consumer spending’
China Focus: China embraces world economy with unswerving opening-up – Xinhua
China binnenland
China demands schoolteachers hand in their passports – FT
Daughter of jailed, outspoken Chinese businessman Rén Zhìqiáng 任志强 sends open letter to Xi – Nikkei Asia
Why do so many Chinese officials fall for fake promises of political charlatans? – SCMP: ‘Deng Yuwen, former deputy editor of Study Times, the Central Party School’s official newspaper, said people turned to fraudsters because the system itself was designed to be accountable upwards rather than downwards.’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
‘Impossible’ for People’s Republic of China to be our motherland, Taiwan president says – Reuters: ‘He rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying that the island is a country called the Republic of China, which traces its origins back to the 1911 revolution that overthrew the last imperial dynasty.’ 🇨🇳
‘We are a sovereign country,’ Lai says at National Day event – Focus Taiwan
Lai’s address draws mixed reactions – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Taiwanese entertainers post messages ahead of Chinese national day – New Bloom 🇨🇳
Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 criticises President Lai’s China policy – Taipei Times: ‘He also said that Lai’s “pro-independence stance,” especially the so-called “new two-state theory” [moeilijk te onderbouwen beschuldiging van Peking en KMT] implied by his statements on China and Taiwan, have raised concerns within US political, academic and business circles [dankzij mensen zoals hem en beïnvloedingsoperaties zoals de Chinese delegatie van ‘Taiwan-experts’ die ons eerder dit jaar bezocht op Clingendael met dezelfde boodschap], leading to American Institute in Taiwan Chairwoman Laura Rosenberger visiting Taiwan to express concerns to the Lai administration [volgens mij is dat gewoon een leugen].’
Taiwan’s Former President Ma Delivers Address at Fairbank Center – Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies: ‘From Iraq and Afghanistan to Ukraine, proxy wars (代理人戰爭) only lead to devastation and the ruin of countless lives and almost every industries in the war zones. Taiwan must not become a pawn for others.’
‘The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to the same Chinese nation and are descendants of Yan and Huang emperors. As Mr. Xi Jinping has stated, the Chinese nation is one of the greatest in the world, having created a long-lasting, brilliant, and unparalleled Chinese civilization. Every child of the Chinese nation feels proud and honored by this heritage.’
Het valt niet alleen op hoeveel extremer het Chinese nationalisme van Ma is geworden, maar ook hoe veel vaker en meer letterlijk hij soortgelijke spreekpunten als die van Peking herhaalt. Hij is echt positief over Xi de laatste tijd.
An interview with Admiral Táng Huá 唐華: China is using an ‘anaconda strategy’ to squeeze Taiwan – The Economist: ‘Few people in Taiwan are aware of how close and regular the PLA patrols are.’ ‘The government may be worried that too much disclosure would damage Taiwan’s public morale or economy, says Admiral Tang.’ 🇨🇳
Dozens of Taiwanese missing in China – Taipei Times: ‘There are 77 incidents of Taiwanese travelers going missing in China between January last year and last month, the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) said. More than 40 remain unreachable’
‘Most of the reachable people in the more than 30 other incidents were allegedly involved in fraud, while some had disappeared for personal reasons, Luo said.’ 🇨🇳
China’s free influencer training part of ‘united front’ tactics, Taiwanese government official says – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Upcoming brigade-level Chang Tai military drills to adopt non-stop 24-hour format – Focus Taiwan: ‘reservists might be called up to take part in the exercises for the first time’
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Budget stalemate continues as opposition lawmakers block review – Focus Taiwan: ‘review rejected for the third time’
ROC National Day celebrations to kick off in Taipei Saturday – Focus Taiwan: ‘Speaking at the press event, Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), who also heads the official ceremony’s organizing team, said “the Republic of China is like a dark and thin old man” who “has been locked up in a black hut for the past eight years.”’
‘The metaphor of the shriveled man reflects the KMT's longstanding allegations that the Democratic Progressive Party government has deliberately downplayed the ROC's symbols and flags at National Day celebrations.’
Taipei court approves impound request for Core Pacific Plaza site – Taipei Times
KMT lawmaker Chen Hsueh-sheng 陳雪生 eyes easing media rules – Taipei Times: ‘to allow the government, political parties and the military to indirectly invest in broadcast media, prompting concerns of potential political interference.’
Keelung mayor George Hsieh 謝國樑 (KMT) sorry for not calling typhoon day amid continued flooding – Taipei Times: ‘The former legislator is facing a recall vote on Oct. 13, initiated by civic groups’
Taiwan revokes fugitive tycoon Chen Yu-hao 陳由豪’s citizenship – Focus Taiwan: ‘Since acquiring Chinese citizenship, he has developed close ties with Chinese officials and the business sector in that country.’ 🇨🇳
Typhoon Krathon agricultural losses estimated at NT$390 million [€11m] – Focus Taiwan